Why can’t economists agree???
Economists seem all over the place regarding the direction of the (national) housing market.
A very few (mostly those working for the National Association of Realtors …) think the market is on the way to recovery.
Many others believe the market has leveled off, and, although prices may have a bit of a drop over the coming year, we should have more stability in prices, bringing down inventory as buyers jump back into the market.
A minority of economists think doomsday is around the corner.
Appraiser-extraordinaire Jonathan J Miller posted about this, the other day.
Which Economic Path To Follow: Lets Agree To Disagree – By Jonathan J. Miller, Matrix
A friend of mine who is an economist told me an old joke about economists once. It goes something like this:
If a group of economists are gathered together in a room, not only are they unable to agree on where the economy is headed, they can’t agree on where it came from.
Thus the dilemma of readers trying to figure out what the consensus of the usual economists quoted by the media actually is.
There has been a smattering of silver lining in some of the economic news lately … [and] … the outlook for the economy doesn’t appear to be as bad as once thought. That doesn’t mean rosy though.
Even the more pessimistic economists seem to speak in terms of a soft landing without a recession next year. This is exemplified by the usually negative but very credible UCLA Anderson Forecast …
I read a lot of economists’ forecasts, and blend them all together to get my own opinions.
Like Mr. Miller, I find I agree with Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Economy.com, more often than any other economist.
Mr. Zandi isn’t one to pull any punches; he has said some pretty negative things about the housing market, etc. He does feel, as I do, that we’re seeing a small drop-off in prices, moderating in 2007.
What Zandi says, I believe.
But, really, he’s an economist! He’s predicting! So, no better than a weather forecaster.
