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Will first-time homebuyers come back to market?

I work with many first-time homebuyers. Between January and September, I noticed a precipitous drop in my client base, as many of these buyers decided to wait out the market, first because of high home prices, and second because of uncertainty over the direction of the real estate market.

Starting in September, however, things began moving back toward a more normal mix of clients.

One of the big questions for next year is, will first-time homebuyers come back, or wait another year?

The share of first-time home buyers dropped earlier this year to its lowest level since 1987, according to the National Association of Realtors. First-time home buyers now account for 36% of home purchases, according to a study released last month by the Realtors group, down from 40% in the three previous years.


First-time buyers play a key role in the housing market. They provide a source of new demand for homes, and they also make it possible for owners of entry-level properties to trade up, creating a ripple effect that affects higher-priced sectors of the market. Declining affordability has made it difficult for first-time buyers to buy homes in many parts of the country, an important factor in the recent housing downturn.

… 45% of first-time buyers bought their home with no money down, according to the recent National Association of Realtors survey, up from 43% a year earlier.

Some analysts think prices need to come down more, and incomes increase, to bring parity.

Bank of America analyst Daniel Oppenheim says that, even with the recent price declines, he estimates that it would take a further 7% fall in home prices, combined with a 4% annual increase in nominal incomes, to bring affordability back in line with average levels over the past decade by 2008 — if interest rates remain stable.

Complete story: First-Time Home Buyers Look at Houses Again – Real Estate Journal

Read other posts about: Boston real estate - buying a home

No Responses to “Will first-time homebuyers come back to market?” »»

  1. Q
    Comment by Q | 12/14/06 at 11:54 pm

    I’m a

    potential first-time buyer in the Metro Boston area and I was prepared to enter the market around

    May of 2006.
    However, like many others, I started noticing the softening of the market and

    opted to sit out and wait.

    I have the 20% to put down but I’ve decided to sit out and

    continue renting at a price that is less than half of what I’d be paying for a mortgage payment.

    I’ve decided to let my savings continue to earn interest and wait at least until early 2008 before

    entering the market.
    Many of my friends are in the exact same boat as me and they are all

    taking the same approach. I don’t see any of them buying in 2007.

    Great blog and I

    appreciate the fact that your content is some of the most objective I see out there in a

    blogosphere filled with spin and half-truths. I think it gives you a lot of credibility in the RE

    industry.

  2. Comment by John A Keith | 12/15/06 at 1:40 am

    Nine tenths of life is just showing

    up.

  3. Comment by Chris | 12/15/06 at 9:18 am

    I can totally understand this situation. If I were a first time

    buyer, I would probably do the same unless I saw something I loved for the right

    price.

    However, letting money sit in savings is certainly not going to earn you any real

    interest. I would assume you are not tying it down into IRA or what not- in case you do find the

    right place to jump in – so the basic savings account is a total non-factor in the grand scheme of

    things.

  4. Comment by Mike | 12/15/06 at 9:44 am

    I’m doing

    the same thing as Q — I have the 20% downpayment just sitting in a bank, but I’ll be starting a

    new lease in 2/07 instead of purchasing a home like I had planned earlier this year. If house

    prices remain flat like most economists are predicting, then at least I’ll be earning an extra

    $5000 bank interest over the next year on my money.

  5. AC
    Comment by AC | 12/15/06 at 10:49 am

    Maybe

    I’m not as pessimistic as others, but I too have the 20%, yet I think the spring will be a great

    time to start looking. I plan on staying for at least 5 years wherever I buy, so even if there’s a

    further dip in 07 and things start to recover in 08, I don’t see it affecting me enough to put off

    buying for another year.

  6. Q
    Comment by Q | 12/15/06 at 11:34 am

    I keep 70% of my savings in an Emigrant Direct

    savings accountm, yielding about 5% annually. The other 30% I let ride in index funds. My hope is

    that the net gain will be somewhere in the 6.5%-7% range.
    I figure getting that return on my

    money is better than possibly taking a loss or a small gain in 2007.

    At the end of 2007, if

    things have really taken a dip, I plan on testing the waters a bit and possibly making some lowball

    offers. I know sellers often find this insulting but I would go out and make several offers 20%

    below asking price and see if anything sticks. If not, no worries.

    By the time I buy, I

    could potentially have 30-35% to put down. I would sleep quite well at night knowing I have that

    much equity to start with.

    I honestly don’t know how people can live paycheck to paycheck

    simply paying for their home. That would give me ulcers.

    I hear a lot of people say banks

    encourage you to overextend yourself on a mortgage. Personally, I would never go beyond the 28% of

    gross income threshold. As a result, I may be forced to move out of the area I’ve lived in my

    whole life.

    Based only on my own observations, a lot of young intelligent people are

    getting the hell out of Boston lately. I personally worked with 4 people in their 20’s who fled

    the state for more affordable areas.

  7. Comment by Fever | 12/15/06 at 3:23 pm

    Chris:

    Based on the way home prices are moving under your mattress would provide a better

    interest rate than investing in real estate.

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