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NAR’s Yun has no idea what he’s saying

Lawrence Yun, chief economist and vice president of research for the National Association of Realtors, September 1, 2007: Predictions are always risky, but I’m going out on a limb to say existing-home sales will improve markedly by the fourth quarter. So keep your eyes on the horizon. There are forces at play that will turn the market around, and buyers who make the commitment now could be smiling next year.

Lawrence Yun, chief economist and vice president of research for the National Association of Realtors, September 11, 2007: The National Association of Realtors’ revised monthly prediction calls for U.S. existing home sales of 5.9 million in 2007, down from 6.5 million last year. The forecast was below last month’s prediction of a 6.8 percent drop.

Now, you can parse his words to conclude his more current comments don’t contradict what he said, just weeks prior, but you know, that just doesn’t fly.

Oh, Yun. You must have kept them in stitches at economist college.

Read other posts about: the real estate industry

5 Responses to “NAR’s Yun has no idea what he’s saying” »»

  1. Gus
    Comment by Gus | 09/11/07 at 3:59 pm

    Literally every single prediction Yun or his predecessor, David Lareah, have made since the

    downturn began has been wrong. They have all turned out to be overly optimistic, and outrageously

    so. Their statements have been either half a step ahead or half a step behind being obviously wrong

    to any reasonable person who was listening at the time they were made.

    Yet he is still

    quoted in the media frequently, without reference to his demonstrated lack of credibility. Often,

    while it is always stated what his job is, it is rarely pointed out that his job creates a certain

    bias.

    His statements can still be helpful, if you read between the lines. You can be

    confident that his predictions form a ceiling. That is, you can be sure that whatever he predicts,

    the reality will be worse.

    BTW John, great blog. I don’t agree with everything you say, but

    if I did, it would be boring.

  2. Bob
    Comment by Bob | 09/12/07 at 4:20 pm

    At this point I believe that both

    Lareah and Yun are hurting the real estate industry as mouthpieces. They simply can’t be

    trusted.

  3. Comment by Robert | 09/12/07 at 11:21 pm

    Nice piece on why the NAR fails to do any sort of

    basic analysis to support its rhetoric. Apparently reporters include the NAR predictions in thie

    columns for comedy relief. If I were a realtor I’d be on the phone to my trade organization.

    It’s complete rubbish. Only in D.C can you be payed more to

    lie.

    http://www.housingwire.com/2007/08/15/nar-home-sales-are-down-and-wed-rather-make-up-co

    nclusions-on-price-instead-of-doing-some-real-analysis/

  4. Comment by Finance Mike | 09/13/07 at 10:33 am

    Well, he IS just doing his job, which is to be a cheerleader for

    Realtors, not to get to the truth. That’s what they pay him for. He’d be out of a job pretty

    quick if he told the truth. What dismays me is the way the press latches onto NAR’s every word

    without applying even the slightest degree of critical analysis. The fourth estate should be

    ashamed.

    Mike

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