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South End inventory is really, really high!

There are currently over 240 condos and single-family homes for sale in Boston’s South End neighborhood.

Sound as if there is a glut?

Maybe.

Depends on what you mean by that.

Do you mean, there are a lot of properties for sale?

Then, there is.

Do you mean, there are a lot of properties for sale that I might be able to afford that might be big enough for two people, or a family of three?

Then, there isn’t.

A potential client called me a couple days ago. He is looking to move back into the city with his wife and teen-aged son. His criteria: at least two bedrooms, over 1,000 square feet.

I was happy.

Oh, up to $850,000.

I was not.

You would think (hope) that for $850,000, you could find a two bedroom, 1,000 square foot home in the South End (or Back Bay or Beacon Hill, for that matter).

Well, I tried.

Here’s the breakdown.

I started by searching the local Multiple Listing Service for condos and single-family homes in the South End.

There are currently 240 listed.

I narrowed the search to include only two bedrooms, plus.

There are 149 listed.

I narrowed the search to include only 1,000 square feet, plus.

There are 111 listed.

I narrowed the search to include only properties listed under $850,000.

There are 50 listed.

Now, the typical South End building has a floorplan of 750-900 square feet, so looking for 1,000+ square feet is going to reduce the matches, considerably.

So, I lowered the square footage to 800+.

There are 66 listed.

Not too bad, right?

Okay.

Here’s the breakdown.

1 is mislabeled “South End” when it should be South Boston.

65.

2 are mislabeled “South End” when they should be Bay Village.

63.

1 is mislabeled “South End” when it should be Back Bay (it’s on St Botolph). We’ll let this one slide.

63

Three are in the “book-end” neighborhood, between Massachusetts Avenue and Northeastern. Fine location, but quite a distance from anything (especially since Liquor Land closed down, a couple weeks ago). These aren’t going to work for them.

60

First floor (basement) units have been ruled out. Basement units are great if you have a baby or mobility issues, but many people feel unsafe at street or sub-street level.

38 (No, I’m not kidding. 22 of the units in this price range were basement level or parlor-garden duplexes.)

Massachusetts Avenue has been ruled out, as too busy. As has Washington Street, toward Mass Ave.

35

South of Washington is too far from the subway or too close to Boston Medical Center. Therefore, rule out ten units at 700 Harrison, two units at The Penmark, and one unit at the Art Block. Beautiful units, but they aren’t going to work for this family.

22

So we have 22 units.

$629,000 – Wareham St – too far from the subway, South of Washington, they will probably say it’s not going to work
$719,000 – Bradford St – possibility
$499,900 – Worcester St – possibility (the price is so low as to make you wonder, though, no?)
$669,500 – Worcester St – possibility
$499,000 – E Concord St – aesthetically unpleasing, they will probably say it’s not going to work
$649,000 – Tremont St – tough block, busy street, aesthetically unpleasing, they will probably say it’s not going to work
$649,000 & $795,000 – Gateway Terrace (2) – quite a distance from the subway, South of Washington, but I wouldn’t rule them out
$620,000 – Tremont St – tough block, busy street, aesthetically unpleasing, they will probably say it’s not going to work
$595,000 – Shawmut Ave – eh, maybe; it has an accepted offer, though
$575,000 – 75 Clarendon St – a possibility – if the family is willing to accept the chance that a 400-unit hotel is going up across the street, this might work for them
$647,000 & $654,000 – Tremont St (2) – tough block, busy street, aesthetically unpleasing, they will probably say it’s not going to work
$749,000 – E Brookline St – south of Washington, close to BMC, they will probably say it’s not going to work
$815,000 – West Newton St – possibility (beautiful photos!)
$599,000 – West Brookline St – possibility
$729,000 – Rutland Sq – possibility

$560,000 – Minot Hall – hmm, this is on Washington St, near Mass Ave, I think they’ll probably rule this one out
$599,000 – Laconia Lofts – hmm, I think they’ll probably rule this one out
$649,000 – D4 – maybe; this unit is big enough, the location is good, but for some reason, not everyone loves this building
$530,000 – Worcester Sq – maybe; south of Washington, I don’t think they’ll go that far, and I’m not sure of the quality of the renovation
$739,000 – Worcester Sq – south of Washington, I question its viability, it’s been on the market for 206 days, a warning sign to be sure

So, what am I left with?

Ten, maybe twelve possibilities. Out of 240 homes for sale.

Yes, there are plenty of properties. However, experience tells me that the majority of them just won’t work for this client. Or, for many clients.

Frustrating, this. Especially for buyers who aren’t looking up to $850,000. Say, $750,000, $650,000 or $550,000 is their budget.

There are more than ten, maybe twelve people looking to move into the South End.

The reality is, at this point in time, and as far as I can tell, for the foreseeable future, finding such a home will be a challenge.

I’ll let you know what happens!

Source: Multiple Listing Service Property Information Network, Inc.

Read other posts about: Boston condo sales data

11 Responses to “South End inventory is really, really high!” »»

  1. Comment by Andrea | 06/20/08 at 1:25 pm

    Have you noticed any trend of sellers accepting offers significantly lower than the asking price — say, 15% or more below? If so, I wonder how many units would be in the pool if those were factored in.

  2. Comment by Yikes | 06/20/08 at 1:56 pm

    Andrea – With bidding wars a continuing happenstance in the South End, I’d say the chances of anyone accepting 15% under asking to be non-existent.

  3. Comment by Yikes | 06/20/08 at 2:10 pm

    I’d have to add though that if your client is basically saying “I want to live in the South End, except only in a two block stretch east of Mass Ave, north of Washington, south of St. Botolph, west of Bay Village, but not on Tremont, no less than 2 bedrooms, over 1000 sqft, on the 2nd floor or higher, no less than 5 minutes from a subway…” etc etc etc… well then with all those restrictions applied to a pretty small neighborhood (geographically speaking), it’s no surprise they’re going to have trouble. Too many limitations.

  4. Comment by John A Keith | 06/20/08 at 2:59 pm

    I agree with your point, but truth is, just about everyone has those criteria. It’s not uncommon. It’s why prices are where they are. Same is true on Beacon Hill and in the Back Bay. The typical buyer doesn’t want to be on the Cambridge St side or up near Kenmore Square.

    In this specific case, my clients are not being too demanding. Again, it’s what everyone wants.

    We moved into a one-bedroom condo on Tremont Street. It’s louder than we’d like, it’s smaller than we’d like, the neighbors aren’t what we’d like. It was a compromise, but the goods outweigh the bads. Others wouldn’t have been willing to make those “sacrifices”.

    I’d say that because of people’s criteria, it’s what makes the South End as expensive as it is. Simple supply and demand, you know?

  5. Comment by Boston Condo Guy | 06/20/08 at 4:37 pm

    The D4 listing may be a good fit. Parking is extra, but combine the two, and the developer may be willing to let it go at a reasonable price. That particular unit (15), does not have all the upgrades that are common to most of the units at D4 (for instance, no bamboo flooring, the cabinets are not as high end, the appliances are white versus high end sub zero and the like, the countertops are different, and the bathroom is not a wall of beautiful white marble).

    That said, you can make some simple upgrades to the unit, and it would be a great long term investment in an exceptional building, with a great location.

    The unit is south facing as well, so gets good light all day, unlike some of the units in the building. Additionally, it’s far enough off Berkeley to avoid the street noise.

  6. Comment by The Family Guy | 06/20/08 at 7:40 pm

    Sounds like if they can’t find what they’re looking for at a price point of $850k, then anyone who is selling a 2 bedroom 1000+sqft condo in the 2 acre patch that is acceptable should immediately be able to command at least $900k to $1mil if not more. Clearly demand is that high and availability is pretty much non-existent.

  7. Comment by John A Keith | 06/20/08 at 7:50 pm

    To a certain extent, that’s true, Family Guy.

    There were 65 sales of $800,000+ condos over the past six months, in the South End, average price was $1,200,000. (Average days on market, 120.)

    There are currently 58 units over $800,000 available in the South End, including five at The Bryant. ( Average days on market, 126, without the Bryant listings included (they were put on prior to construction, 2 years ago).)

    I’d say this is probably a little high, so sellers should adjust, but I don’t think they will.

  8. Comment by david | 06/23/08 at 7:36 am

    John, as someone who would consider moving back into the city someday, where will their teenager go to school? pvt school or one of the city’s exam schools?

  9. Comment by Dave | 06/23/08 at 11:35 am

    Haven’t heard anything about The Modern since the auction was cancelled. What’s the latest?

  10. Comment by John A Keith | 06/23/08 at 1:08 pm

    Dave, they have been relisted with Ricardo Rodriguez of Coldwell Banker.

    Six units are showing “under agreement” in MLSPIN; don’t know if any of these were auction units or are all post-auction transactions.

    Contact me for more info.

  11. Comment by John A Keith | 06/23/08 at 5:54 pm

    David, overall, the Boston public school system is not well-respected. For elementary schools, however, there are a couple of good ones. The Hurley School, in the South End, for example, is very popular. Parents are very involved in their children’s education.

    I would not put one of my own children into the BPS.

    So, your choices are converting to Catholicism or paying private school tuitions.

    Or, home schooling!

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