Comments on: Boston condo inventory – Frustrating

By: Boston Condo Guy

Boston Condo Guy — Sat, 06 Dec 2008 03:20:38 +0000

Note that the $15 million Trinity Place listing never sold. After the listing was removed from the market, it was broken into the two individual units that were combined, and are still available for sale to this day.

By: Ned Lynch

Ned Lynch — Sat, 06 Dec 2008 01:46:29 +0000

As to the direct question: So you think $16 million for a piece of the Mandarin Oriental is not bubblicious? Or say, $500k for a 1 bed, 600sqft apartment with no parking, laundry or air conditioning?

Not to be glib, but I think they are worth exactly what the market says they are. A 600 sqft, 1 bed in Louisburg square seems like a steal. The 8000sqft condo in the Mandarin isn’t too crazy when its nearest comp in Trinity Place sold for $15 million ( http://www.boston-condos-for-sale.com/2007/07/30/trinity-place-penthouse-15-million/ ). That is a very unique market, and I can’t say for sure what the price should be. But just because it has a high price tag, doesn’t mean it is a bubble price.

By: Ned Lynch

Ned Lynch — Sat, 06 Dec 2008 01:26:51 +0000

Crystal ball gazing into the future is very tough. We all can have short memories which can greatly affect our view of hard data. For instance, the last decline in Boston (according to Case-Schiller) lasted from 1988 and started recovering in 1991. That is a 3 year period. The current Boston market (again from Case-Schiller) “peaked” in Sept. 2005 and has gone down since. Again a 3 year period. I am not saying there is any correlation between the 3 years (the Boston market may have quite a ways to go yet), however I don’t think many people realize the length of both the previous recovery and the current decline. (Btw. Case-Schiller stuff can be located here: http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.topic/indices_csmahp/0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,1,0,0,0,0,0.html )

I think there is a big difference between a crash from a bubble and a healthy correction. Miami, with a 4 1/2 year supply of condos and all it’s other worrisome signs, is more of what I would call a bubble. Boston, which has a 6-8 month supply and fewer of the other “bubble” signs, may not sink so low.

By: condobuyer

condobuyer — Fri, 05 Dec 2008 04:14:42 +0000

Chris,

If you think your place is worth the price and you intend to live there for a long time, then my guess is you made a good decision. However, many people in boston, especially young professionals/first time purchasers looking for condos intend to stay in their place for maybe 4, 5, 6 years. If I was intending to live in my condo for 15/20 + years, I would be in a different category. For those who intend to stay in their place for less than 5 years I personally don’t think it’s an optimal time to buy. 5-7 years, you can maybe anticipate breaking even or making a little profit assuming you get a good deal now. Regardles of whether the market will bottom out in 2009, 2010 or 2011, the fact is it will take a looong time for prices to start increasing again and they will not increase at the 03-06 pace. Very few people who bought in the last five years can sell for a profit right now.

Furthermore, everyday there are 100s of more local job losses and it would be pretty ironic if that had little impact on real estate in the city.

By: Chris

Chris — Fri, 05 Dec 2008 02:47:09 +0000

Who invited Kathy to this party anyway? Jeez, I should go rip up the p&s I signed last night because obviously according to Kathy I am throwing money away on my new house.

Bottom line is no one knows where this is all going but people need somewhere to live – like me and my family. I don’t want to rent. I can afford my mortgage, like my new place, like my new neighborhood, and plan on living there for a long time.

And then before we know it, prices are going to go down even further….