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Home Buyer Tax Credit – Can We Afford It?

One of the more interesting numbers to come out yesterday was the cost per marginal homeowner of the $8000 first time homebuyer tax credit. It’s a rather astounding $43,000 per new homeowner. That’s what it costs to lure those that wouldn’t have bought into the housing market.

A couple sites in the blogosphere talked about this, one example is Calculated Risk. From that blog here is how the numbers shake out:

With regards to the tax credit, what really matters is the cost per additional home sold. And as I pointed out earlier today, even using the NAR numbers, the cost per additional home sold is $43.4 thousand.

Here is the math: 1.9 million buyers qualify for the credit (the NAR estimates between 1.8 and 2.0 million) = $15.2 billion.

The NAR estimates the tax credit resulted in 350 thousand additional purchases. So divide $15.2 billion by 350 thousand = $43,000 per additional home. And the numbers will get worse if the program is extended.

Source: Calculated Risk

Read other posts about: Boston real estate - buying a home

6 Responses to “Home Buyer Tax Credit – Can We Afford It?” »»

  1. Comment by Rich | 09/02/09 at 3:47 am

    I’m sold: The first-time home buyer credit is a bad idea because the majority of people who are getting the credit would be buying houses anyway. The increase in home sales is marginal.

  2. Jay
    Comment by Jay | 09/02/09 at 4:41 am

    Not understand and totally confused.
    If 1.9 mil buyers bought 1.9m house, plus additional 0.35m house, total tax credit should be 2.25m times $8000 which is about $18 billion. Yet, credit per house is still $8k. why put all tax credit onto addtional 0.35 mil house? The blogger just missed the point that if no credit, those 1.9 mil people will not buy any house. so those $18b generates about 2.2m house sale. is that right?

  3. Comment by John Ford | 09/02/09 at 6:33 am

    The point trying to be made is that the U,S is paying $8.000 to homebuyers who would be buying homes even with out the tax credit. The NAR claims 350,000 bought because of the credit which avg to 43K per new homebuyer.

  4. Comment by anon2 | 09/02/09 at 6:35 am

    Jay, no the point was that 0.35m was the number of additional sales (according to the NAR) that were generated by the tax credit. The other sales would have happened anyway, even without the credit. The blogger’s point was that in order to generate those additional sales, which was the point of the credit, quite a bit of tax money was spent subsidizing sales that would have happened anyway.

  5. Jay
    Comment by Jay | 09/02/09 at 11:18 am

    There is no data suggest those 1.9m qualified will buy in this marker condition. does author assume last year there were 1.9m first home buyer bought one? even so, we need check if the trend is going down from 2005 till now. if less people every year, that 1.9m number is questionable.

  6. Comment by anon2 | 09/03/09 at 2:43 am

    Jay, it’s not the author who is making assumptions. He got those estimates from The NAR. So yes, they probably are wrong. Even so, the point is still valid that the cost of the tax credit per extra house sold is a lot higher than $8,000, unless you assume that there would have been zero buyers without the credit.

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