11 Responses to “Boston Condo Sales Numbers – Did We Hit Bottom?” »»

1. Boston Broker
   Comment by Boston Broker | 12/08/09 at 5:12 am

   Yes, we did hit bottom. Dec will show increases in sales in part because of the W and Clarendon closings.

2. confused
   Comment by confused | 12/08/09 at 5:35 am

   Yeah, it’s all over. The massive unemployment and increasing defaults won’t matter. This is a great city and people will find a way to own a piece of it. Screw the fact that interest rates are probably going to start to go up. Might as well disregard the fact that these higher numbers might, and I emphasize might, be a result of the tax rebate and could have stolen future buyers. And heck, banks are lending like its 2005. Bottom is in.

3. Funny
   Comment by Funny | 12/08/09 at 7:26 am

   lol @ confused.

   Prices/sqft look down too. Could it be people who can afford it jumping on a good deal for a long term purchase?

   I think it’s more likely then BB thinks.

4. Linda G
   Comment by Linda G | 12/08/09 at 3:24 pm

   BB, I agree with you, we have hit bottom. Those who question, how many months of positive sales do you need to see the light? Come on……

5. Mike
   Comment by Mike | 12/09/09 at 4:50 am

   If you chart the data, July 2009 beating July 2008 looks like a bad July 2008, not a good July 2009. Absent that, the improvements in sales volume are restricted to October and November only, which have relatively low sales volume and are subject to more variability. And don’t forget, 2008 was not exactly a banner year. The current trend is encouraging, but it’s a little premature to start calling the “bottom” – particularly with the distortion caused by the tax credit “expiring” that most agree boosted sales artificially. If we’re really at the bottom, I don’t think you can call it with certainty until we see what the spring has in store.

6. John Ford
   Comment by John Ford | 12/09/09 at 5:02 am

   Mike, point well taken, I know sometimes I send out mixed signals, so I want to make this clear I’m not calling the bottom yet. However, I do see some positive signs on the horizon.

7. BS, Boston, MA
   Comment by BS, Boston, MA | 12/09/09 at 5:52 am

   It’s a positive sign that there can actually be a reasonable conversation (based on data and rational or semi rational interp. of that data) on whether or not we’re at a bottom.

   That said, outside of the northeast, hitting a bottom might not mean that much. Sure, sales may accelerate and new buyers might have opportunity to build equity. But, you’ve still got a lot of people underwater, tight credit, high (10%) unemployment, and flat HPA expectations over a two-three and maybe five year horizon. It’s unclear that increased volume solves anything.

   Hit a bottom and bounce back 10%, now we’re talking some real impact on expectations, perception and loan performance.

   But, in Boston, a bottom might have that impact from day one. Hard to say.

8. Mary
   Comment by Mary | 12/09/09 at 9:25 am

   In the lowest end of the market perhaps, high end? not a chance. knife catchers “snapping up” foreclosures and first time home buyers account for zillow’s number bump. Look at the other area that bounced, Providence…please

9. pain in the
   Comment by pain in the | 12/09/09 at 4:18 pm

   I see one month that is above randomness Linda G….no that aint enough….come on…be serious

   John F. I checked your math, spot on…well done

10. Lawrence
    Comment by Lawrence | 12/10/09 at 11:47 pm

    I agree with Mary, there might be a bounce in the Boston condo low end, but the luxury condos have a long way to go.

11. John Ford
    Comment by John Ford | 12/11/09 at 3:53 am

    Lawrence, I agree Mary makes some good points, and I enjoy reading her comments, but with that said, I do see some signs (although small) that we may be turning the corner.

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