10 Responses to “A Boston real estate thought about sales stats” »»

1. rich
   Comment by rich | 03/22/10 at 8:29 am

   To get a better feel for the market, I think it is important to break out numbers for new construction units vs. resale of existing units.

   New construction unit sales tend to distort sales statistics. During the presales period, before a new building opens, reserved units take away buyers from the market. After a new building opens, these presales suddenly become sales which quickly pushes up both unit counts and average sales prices.

   Here in Boston, 2 new buildings just hit the market in late December. No wonder that 1st quarter is looking up. The question can this momentum be kept up through the summer.

   There is little doubt that the high-end condo market has improved in the past 12 months. Let’s not forget that the stock market is up 50% since the very dark days of March 2009 when the market hit bottom.

2. Mike
   Comment by Mike | 03/22/10 at 9:02 am

   I think that’s a great idea, and helped me formulate my thoughts on the luxury market that I put into another post in another thread. Just wanted to give Rich credit where credit’s due for thinking to bifurcate new construction versus private sales – thanks rich!

   Mike

3. MarketMaker
   Comment by MarketMaker | 03/22/10 at 11:01 am

   One sales statistic that I have found helpful in the past is tracking the pre-sales pace of yet-to-be completed projects based on Under Agreement dates. Depending on the year(s), it is a very telling trend. Post-completion sales (e.g. units put Under Agreement after the c/o is received), the more traditional “sold” dates work just fine. What I think you’ll find is that as you spread the pre-sales out based on UA dates the market trends will not bottleneck as they do when larger developments close their first X units when the certificate of occupancy is received. I don’t think you can truly separate new vs. re-sale because typically the buyer pool is the same.

4. Mary
   Comment by Mary | 03/22/10 at 1:33 pm

   John,

   Maybe this will help:

   Kevin Ahearn sells the remainder of the Clarendon units next month, the average commission of the downtown broker is now 1.5 million a month. JK has sold one garden level unit in the South End since 2004, is he better off?

   It’s not rocket science….

   One more point, repeat sales, repeat sales, repeat sales….

5. pain in the
   Comment by pain in the | 03/22/10 at 1:51 pm

   You’re a class act John. I, and it’s just my opinion, appreciate the effort to determine the true trend. Give me a hollar if you’re willing to represent somebody who’s going to lowball distressed sellers in Newton til somebody bites. I’m going for 3 bedrooms, 1 1/2 baths, 1500sqft for 350K within walking distance to the green line.

   And my 2 cents…just because you’re trending up doesn’t mean things are good.

6. Bob
   Comment by Bob | 03/22/10 at 2:45 pm

   Trying to look at any trend in such a short period of time is a bit useless. Let history teach us a lesson. The stock market crashed in 1929 and the DOW fell to about 195. By 1930 it rose to about 300. By 1932 it fell to about 50. I’m sure there were luxury buyers in 1930 who thought that things were improving and they were buying at the bottom. Boy did they make a foolish mistake.

7. Ron G
   Comment by Ron G | 03/22/10 at 5:43 pm

   Who is JK?

8. megan
   Comment by megan | 03/22/10 at 5:53 pm

   ^ I believe she means John Keith. He used to run this blog. He tried to become a politician, but failed, and is now a realtor again.

9. John Ford
   Comment by John Ford | 03/22/10 at 8:35 pm

   Thanks for your ideas and comments. I’ll follow-up in the near future with another sales stat blog post using your ideas.

10. John Ford
    Comment by John Ford | 03/23/10 at 8:16 am

    Pain in the, thanks for your comment. I’ll keep my eyes open regarding Newton

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