Comments on: Your thoughts on the Boston Condo Market http://www.bostonreb.com/2010/03/your-thoughts-on-the-boston-condo-market/ Boston real estate, Boston condos, Boston luxury condos, Boston luxury real estate, Back Bay condos, Back Bay real estate, Back Bay luxury condos, Boston Back Bay condos Mon, 06 Feb 2012 05:38:19 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: Mike http://www.bostonreb.com/2010/03/your-thoughts-on-the-boston-condo-market/comment-page-1/#comment-14955 Mike Wed, 10 Mar 2010 18:38:55 +0000 http://www.bostonreb.com/?p=28364#comment-14955 I'm not sure if we have to wait for June and the end of Fed monetary policy support. I agree with Rich that the Fed's support of the securitized mortgage market has been huge, but I also think buyer outlook has an even stronger influence on the markets. If rates go up, it will certainly put downward pressure on prices, but some of that impact will push people to buy "less house" rather than purely be a hit to pricing. And the estimates I've seen call for half a percent rise, not a crippling percent or two. Should the half percent scenario play out mortgage rates will be a minor event. That being said, we will have high unemployment with us for quite a while. So even if this is "the bottom", I think the market is going to bumble along this level for quite some time, probably until the end of 2011. We might eke out 2% - 3% price gains in 2011, but you won't see the double digit increases that characterized the boom years for a long, long time - 10 years or so. I think the historical period that will most resemble the next 5-10 years is the 1965 to 1975 time frame, which had basically flat home prices. Hardly "en fuego", more like "smoldering". I’m not sure if we have to wait for June and the end of Fed monetary policy support. I agree with Rich that the Fed’s support of the securitized mortgage market has been huge, but I also think buyer outlook has an even stronger influence on the markets. If rates go up, it will certainly put downward pressure on prices, but some of that impact will push people to buy “less house” rather than purely be a hit to pricing. And the estimates I’ve seen call for half a percent rise, not a crippling percent or two. Should the half percent scenario play out mortgage rates will be a minor event.

That being said, we will have high unemployment with us for quite a while. So even if this is “the bottom”, I think the market is going to bumble along this level for quite some time, probably until the end of 2011. We might eke out 2% – 3% price gains in 2011, but you won’t see the double digit increases that characterized the boom years for a long, long time – 10 years or so.

I think the historical period that will most resemble the next 5-10 years is the 1965 to 1975 time frame, which had basically flat home prices. Hardly “en fuego”, more like “smoldering”.

]]> By: confused http://www.bostonreb.com/2010/03/your-thoughts-on-the-boston-condo-market/comment-page-1/#comment-14954 confused Wed, 10 Mar 2010 18:15:38 +0000 http://www.bostonreb.com/?p=28364#comment-14954 Of what, sales, prices, or both? Foreclosures? Of what, sales, prices, or both? Foreclosures?

]]> By: John Ford http://www.bostonreb.com/2010/03/your-thoughts-on-the-boston-condo-market/comment-page-1/#comment-14952 John Ford Wed, 10 Mar 2010 17:34:18 +0000 http://www.bostonreb.com/?p=28364#comment-14952 Rich, I'm 100% in agreement with you. Mortgage backed securities is the wild card right now. Rich, I’m 100% in agreement with you. Mortgage backed securities is the wild card right now.

]]> By: Funny http://www.bostonreb.com/2010/03/your-thoughts-on-the-boston-condo-market/comment-page-1/#comment-14947 Funny Wed, 10 Mar 2010 17:05:18 +0000 http://www.bostonreb.com/?p=28364#comment-14947 Irrationally overpriced given the economic climate of the past 10 years. See Investment flipping. But sustainable for a while until the next huge housing crash, since little has been done to fix the problem, attitudes and all. The bubble needs to be deflated, Housing as the US economy is dangerous. Irrationally overpriced given the economic climate of the past 10 years. See Investment flipping.

But sustainable for a while until the next huge housing crash, since little has been done to fix the problem, attitudes and all. The bubble needs to be deflated, Housing as the US economy is dangerous.

]]> By: Rich http://www.bostonreb.com/2010/03/your-thoughts-on-the-boston-condo-market/comment-page-1/#comment-14946 Rich Wed, 10 Mar 2010 15:31:21 +0000 http://www.bostonreb.com/?p=28364#comment-14946 It's too early to say because the Fed is still throwing large amounts of cheap mortgage money at the real estate market. Ask again in June after the Fed has presumably exited the mortgage market. It’s too early to say because the Fed is still throwing large amounts of cheap mortgage money at the real estate market. Ask again in June after the Fed has presumably exited the mortgage market.

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