boston real estate blog   
Sponsored by Ford Realty Inc.
137 Charles Street, Boston
realtyford@yahoo.com
617-595-3712
617-720-5454
151 Tremont Street
617-482-0010
boston real estate blog
| Home | Search Boston Condos | Search Boston Rentals | Buying
Real Estate
| Selling
Real Estate
| About Us | Contact Us



National and local housing-market predictions for 2014

Here are five housing-market predictions for the nation: Mortgage rates will top 5 percent, mortgages will be easier to secure, inventory will stabilize, home affordability will decline, fewer people will own homes.

OK, we’re not in the position to argue with the first two items, but we have some nuanced quibbles with the last three items, so here are our general Big Think predictions for the Massachusetts/Boston housing markets in 2014:

Massachusetts inventory will not stabilize: Sure, more sellers may finally get off the fence and decide to sell this spring. And there is some more housing being built. The current incredibly lopsided seller’s market can’t last forever.

But there’s simply not enough housing being built in Massachusetts to even come close to truly stabilizing inventory and prices. It’s why prices have been relentlessly rising for the past two decades now in the state. Does anyone really think that dynamic is suddenly going to go away next spring?

There will be pockets of price declines in Massachusetts: All of the above is not to say we won’t see some price relief in some selective areas. Rental price competition in the Seaport area actually broke out earlier this year, due to the flood of new units hitting the market there. We could see this in other city neighborhoods in 2014 or 2015.

For instance, take a look at the “under construction” projects listed by the DowntownBoston.org. That’s a lot of new housing units for a relatively small area. Sooner or later, those new units will make a price difference, though probably in late 2014 and 2015 (or later), depending on when they’re finished.

But, again, it’s not enough – and the new supply of housing is not geographically spread out enough. Boston alone can’t be the one building 80 percent of the new housing stock in the state. Something fundamental has to change elsewhere.

Marty Walsh isn’t stupid enough to stop high-end housing construction: Marty Walsh is a smart man and knows the construction industry. So the new mayor, who takes office next month, won’t (and shouldn’t) interfere with the current high-end housing-construction in the downtown. Those projects are providing badly needed construction jobs and they’re helping relieve the overall housing crisis, to an extent, in the region. The trick is to get more housing built elsewhere in the city.

Marty Walsh won’t get much housing built outside the downtown area – at least in 2014: As Paul McMorrow has noted: Boston’s housing solution lies outside the downtown. He focuses on Allston to make his point that the city needs to build more in non-downtown neighborhoods like Allston, Roxbury, Dorchester, Hyde Park, West Roxbury, South Boston, Roslindale, Brighton, Mattapan etc.

It won’t be easy because of some neighborhood opposition. And so it will take time. But if Walsh focuses on new housing in these neighborhoods – while not disrupting the ongoing boom in the downtown – he could end up seeing results by the end of his first term.

Some cities will pick up housing construction: Some smaller cities, such as Somerville, Melrose, Medford, Revere and others, get it: Build housing near T and commuter-rail stations and people will come. Maybe not at the feverish pace now seen in Boston. But there are encouraging signs of more “transit orientated” housing activity going on in the state.

The suburbs aren’t going to change – at least not in 2014: The suburbs are simply not going to change. They don’t want more housing, or, more specifically, family housing. A few condo projects here and there, well, OK. But not family housing that can lead to more students in their school systems. And state lawmakers, who ultimately represent those suburban voters, are not going to go against their constituents’ wishes.

It would take a miracle to change their minds.

But, hey, this is the season of miracles, so maybe … Ah, never mind. It ain’t going to happen.

And that’s our big-think post of the month, if not the year.

Read other posts about: Massachusetts real estate

Leave a Reply »»

Comments may be moderated, edited or deleted; by leaving a comment, you are agreeing to the Terms of Service of this website.

Let's talk Boston real estate. The most recent real estate comments

  • christian louboutin discount shoes sale, Samuels wins right to build 30-story Back Bay complex: ...
  • James, Boston condo owners: Risk of using Airbnb: Just to be clear you’re posting a fear mongering piece, but...
  • Julieta, Affordable housing opportunity in the Fenway: Really? then point out specifically where my cmnoemts are...
  • Rene, Is the housing recovery weaker than it appears?: Give it back to the bank. If your State is a non-recourse...
  • Reyna, Daisy Buchanan’s in Back Bay facing foreclosure: Benjamin: in defense of Vangel, I think the aruemgnt can be...
  • Talene, Which direction will Boston rents go?: I have witnessed that smart real etsate agents just about everywhere...
  • Anna, Well, at least Boston isn’t Los Angeles: Your credit will tank but not as bad as a frrlceosuoe. You need...
  • Tyler Mills, Lenders go into overdrive to clear out backlog of delinquent mortgages: Instead of forcing out the...
  • Tyler Mills, Lack of housing inventory is getting ridiculous in Boston: Though inventory being down is really...
  • warren currier, ‘Boston’s faux housing boom’: Scott, Do you own any units in Boston? Supply /...
  • Nishant, Major Developers: Affordable homes can only be built outside downtown Boston: Yes, this is correct that...
  • warren currier, Done deal: Dr. Dre buys Tom and Gisele’s mansion for $40M: The property is located in LosAngeles,...
  • JS, Despite predictions, inventory of homes for sale continues to fall in Mass.: One thing that could be holding...
  • dcmhomebuyers, For 74 Beacon Street, it was the kitchen, stupid: Nice house. I think front section to location of...
  • Johnd478, Five signs you’re a ‘renter for life’: I just couldnt depart your site prior to...
  • Dionis Padron, Downtown condo prices now averaging near $1 million each: great article but prices for standalone...
  • John Ford, Charles Ponzi’s old Lexington home for sale at $3.3M: That’s a great idea. Anyone have an idea how...
  • Rich, Charles Ponzi’s old Lexington home for sale at $3.3M: Speaking of Mr. Ponzi, he ran his Ponzi scheme out of an...
  • amparo bracero, Big changes in store for Tremont Street?: I will love to comunicated my self with aida I was one of...
  • warren currier, Low mortgage rates may partly explain low inventory: The banks are making it very hard to get a loan....

  • Join us on Facebook Subscribe To FeedBurner Follow us on twitter Newsletter sign-up

    Welcome

    Are you considering the purchase or sale of a home in Boston?

    Contact us today to discuss ways we can help make the experience easy and stress-free.



    Search past blog entries





    Site tools


    Add To Google      Subscribe To FeedBurner

    Add To My Yahoo!

    | | | |





    Boston Real Estate/Boston Condos for Sale -
    Search MLS

    Select property type:
    Select area:
        
        
        
        
        
        
        
        
        
        
        
        
        
        
        
        
        
        
        
        
        
        
        
        
    Select property size:
    Price from:
    Price to:
    MLS #



    Boston Real Estate and Boston Condos

    Click on the links below for Boston condo neighborhood sales listings

    Boston Back Bay Condos

    Beacon Hill Condos

    Boston Charlestown Condos

    Fenway Boston Condos

    Boston South End Condos

    ----------