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Forecast: Boston home prices to moderate in 2014

CoreLogic Case-Shiller has some interesting housing market forecasts for 2014 and 2015.

We ran the numbers for Massachusetts and here’s what we found:

CoreLogic Case-Shiller is forecasting home price increase of 3.7 percent in the Boston-Quincy area from the third quarter of last year (the latest data available) through the third quarter of this year, compared to 6.7 percent in the year prior. Price increases are then expected to run at about 2.5 in 2015.

Cambridge-Newton-Framingham, as designated by CoreLogic Case-Shiller, should see still hefty price increases of 6.2 percent through the third quarter of this year, down from 7.3 percent the year before. That’s not much of a decrease, but it’s still a decrease.

The Peabody area (which we assume is the North Shore area, though many might disagree) should see 6.5 percent growth in prices through the 3Q of 2014, and a price jump of 5.9 percent in 2015. Again, prices are still driving relentlessly up, but they’re still below previous year’s growth of 7.1 percent.

Now here’s where it gets interesting.

The Worcester, Springfield, Pittsfield and Barnstable markets, as defined by CoreLogic Case-Shiller, should see substantial price increases in coming years, considerably above last year’s levels.

We assume that’s because those housing markets haven’t recovered as quickly in recent years and still have more room for price growth.

Repeat: These are just forecasts.

And it’s also worth noting: This is Massachusetts. Our housing market here has been crazy in recent decades, and there’s simply not enough new housing here to meet demand. That means … well, you figure it out.

Read other posts about: Massachusetts real estate

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