The share of U.S. homes selling below their final asking price to hit a six-year high in September 2025, a clear sign of growing buyer power and a cooling of the competitive housing market. Despite this, median sale prices have continued to climb, reaching new all-time highs in 2025.

Key Market Dynamics

Growing Buyer Power: The share of homes selling above their asking price fell to just 25.3% in September 2025, the lowest percentage in six years. The typical home sold for 1.4% below its final list price, compared to just 0.9% lower the previous year, indicating that buyers are successfully negotiating larger discounts.
Persistent Price Increases: Despite the shift in negotiating power, the U.S. median home sale price reached a new record high of $446,000 in June 2025, with the annual median price for 2025 ending about 1.7% higher than in 2024. This is driven by persistent housing shortages in many areas and sustained buyer demand, which keeps a floor under overall prices.
Slowing Market Pace: The time homes spend on the market is increasing. In November 2025, homes spent 3 days longer on the market than the previous year. Additionally, fewer properties went under contract within two weeks of listing, a 6% year-over-year decrease.
Regional Variations: While the national trend shows growing buyer power, some markets remain highly competitive. In September 2025, metros like San Francisco, Newark, NJ, San Jose, CA, and Oakland, CA still saw the average home sell for above asking price. Meanwhile, cities in Florida and Texas experienced the largest typical discounts.

2026 Outlook

Experts forecast a more balanced market for 2026, with affordability modestly improving as wage growth is expected to outpace slight price increases.

Modest Price Growth: National home values are projected to rise slowly, with forecasts from major real estate organizations falling between 1.0% and 2.2%.
Increased Sales: Existing-home sales are expected to increase significantly in 2026, with the National Association of Realtors (NAR) predicting a 14% jump, as modestly lower mortgage rates bring more buyers back to the market.
Sustained Affordability Challenges: Mortgage rates are expected to average around 6.3% in 2026, remaining high compared to the pandemic era, which will continue to challenge affordability for many buyers.