The entire drop in hiring activity in the US the beginning of the pandemic occurred in the principal cities of large metro areas, according to online jobs data. In the rest of the country, hiring activity is now above pre-pandemic levels. This city-center recession is likely to have long-term implications for business geography.
Until a full vaccine and/or a cure is available, a large share of people is likely to continue to work remotely, meaning that fewer will go to downtown Boston than in pre-pandemic times. Fewer commuters will mean less money spent in downtown Boston. And that drop in spending is likely to be most noticeable in the lunch category. Meanwhile, downtown Boston residents are leaving for less densely populated locations in adjacent suburbs or nearby rural areas.
Downtown Boston Real Estate
If the above trend continues for a long length of time, you don’t need to be an economist to realize that this will have an impact on the downtown Boston real estate market.
We’re already seeing the impact on Beacon Hill apartment rents. In due time, it WILL impact the Boston condo for sale.
Other downtown Boston industries to be impact
Within downtown Boston, many entertainment activities, such as going to theatres, top rated restaurants and museums are considered highly risky for infection, and thus will be slow to recover. In addition, tourism, which is highly concentrated in Boston, will remain low.
It is difficult to determine whether these trends are actually occurring, as there are no timely, government-published statistics on employment by place of work below the metro area level, let alone in city centers.
Downtown Boston Real Estate and the Bottom Line
My fear is that downtown Boston will experience a large drop in the number of job openings during the pandemic, especially with the need for employees needing to go to commercial high rise buildings. Outside of downtown Boston, the number of job will increase.
Result Boston suburb home prices will continue to rise, downtown Boston condos prices sill be stuck in the mud, with owners holding out on their asking price as long as they can.😒