The credit monitoring bureau TransUnion said in 2011, if projections hold, the mortgage delinquency rate could fall from the current 6.21 percent to about 5 percent. That’s a big drop — but the prediction is for the end of 2011. Still, it’s not bad news. The company said it reviewed the credit records of 27 million records in its database to come up with projections. That’s a pretty impressive sample.
On the other hand … as Scott Van Voorhis reports in his Real Estate Now blog item today, others aren’t quite so sanguine about the foreclosure outlook. In a panel discussion last week, Amherst Securities’ Laurie Goodman said that one in five homes is either in foreclosure or shortly facing it. That’s 11.6 million homes — nearly one in five mortgage holders. Goodman thinks there’s a chance, faced with these numbers, politicians could opt for a massive mortgage write-down program.