I just found a great website.
The company, John Burns Real Estate Consulting, assesses the state of the US economy and grades it, then forecasts what’s going to happen over the next three months.
Pretty much, right now they see the US economy as ranking a “C”, although the real estate market is graded a “D”.
I think I read somewhere today that new housing starts in Massachusetts is at a 30-year low. This is either good news (er, I guess for those looking to sell?) or bad news (say, if you’re a construction worker, or someone hoping to buy a new home in three years and were expecting an inventory glut would work in your favor – sorry, not going to happen!).
The fourth quarter is going to be a very interesting test to see how well the economy holds up during the housing downturn. Based on our conversations with builders and trades from all over the country, construction is likely to slow much more than usual in the fourth quarter because of excess inventory (most communities have enough standing or under construction inventory to satisfy the current sales pace) and cash flow (generating cash flow and reducing debt are what most builders need to focus on the most).
Residential investment has fallen back to normal levels and we are highly confident it will fall below the norm this quarter. Let’s continue to hope that government, health care and technology businesses continue to thrive so economic growth continues.
More: Fourth Quarter Housing and Economy Forecast – John Burns Real Estate Consulting
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