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National Home Prices on the Rise

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National Home Prices on the Rise

Over the past few months, experts have revised their 2024 home price forecasts based on the latest data and market signals, and they’re even more confident prices will rise, not fall.

So, let’s see exactly how experts’ thinking has shifted – and what’s caused the change.

2024 Home Price Forecasts: Then and Now

The chart below shows what seven expert organizations think will happen to home prices in 2024. It compares their first 2024 home price forecasts (made at the end of 2023) with their newest projections:

 a blue and white graph with text

The middle column shows that, at first, these experts thought home prices would only go up a little this year. But if you look at the column on the right, you’ll see they’ve all updated their forecasts and now think prices will go up more than they originally thought. And some of the differences are major.

There are two big factors keeping such strong upward pressure on home prices. The first is how few homes are for sale right now. According to Business Insider:

Low home inventory is a chronic problem in the US. This has generally kept home prices up . . .”

A lack of Boston Beacon Hill condos for sale has been pushing prices up for a long time now – and that’s not expected to change dramatically this year. But what has changed a bit is mortgage rates.

Late last year when most housing market experts were calling for home prices to rise only a little bit in 2024, mortgage rates were up and buyer demand was more moderate.

Now that rates have come down from their peak last October, and with further declines expected over the course of the year, buyer demand has picked up. That increase in demand, along with an ongoing lack of inventory, is what’s caused the experts to feel the upward pressure on prices will be stronger than they expected a couple months ago.

A Look Forward To Get Ahead of the Next Forecast Revisions

Real estate experts regularly revise their home price forecasts as the housing market shifts. It’s a normal part of their job that ensures their projections are always up-to-date and factor in the latest changes in the housing market.

That means they’ll continue to revise their projections as the housing market changes, just as they’ve always done. How those forecasts change next is anyone’s guess, but pay attention to mortgage rates.

If they trend down as the year goes on, as they’re expected to do, that could lead to more buyer demand and even higher home price forecasts.

Basically, it’s all about supply and demand. With supply still so limited, anything that causes demand to go up will likely cause prices to go up, too.

Boston Beacon Hill Condos and the Bottom Line

At first, experts believed Boston Beacon Hill condo prices would only go up a little this year. But now, they’ve changed their minds and forecast prices will grow even more than they originally thought. Let’s connect so you know what to expect with prices in our area.


National Home Prices on the Rise

This I find surprising.


rates apr 4

The mainstream media is taking their shots at explaining not only Boston condo prices are rising, but the nation’s housing prices are on the rise.

Here is the attempt by the NYT – the link should be unlocked: Link to Article

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National Home Prices on the Rise

Home prices keep making strong gains with almost every major metro area in the U.S. seeing a year-over-year home increase in the first quarter. Those gains were in the double-digits in 89% of those metros areas too, the National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday.

National Home Price

National Home Price

Nationwide, the median existing single-family home price jumped to $319,200, up 16.2% from a year ago and the highest since the NAR began keeping records in 1989.

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said the price increases illustrate the ongoing strong demand and low supply of houses across the country.

“The record high home prices are happening across nearly all markets, big and small, even in those metros that have long been considered off the radar in prior years for many home seekers,” Yun said.

Home sellers are of course benefiting, but that only happens if they don’t need to buy a new home too. Buyers face big challenges, with the average national monthly mortgage payment rising to $1.067 during Q1, up from $995 a year ago. That happened even though the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped to 2.93% in the quarter, down from 3.57% a year ago.

“The sudden price appreciation is impacting affordability, especially among first-time home buyers,” Yun said. “With low inventory already impacting the market, added skyrocketing costs have left many families facing the realities of being priced out entirely.”

The metro area with the biggest price gains in the quarter was Kingston, N.Y., where prices jumped by 35% to a median of $303,100. Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, Conn., Atlantic City-Hammonton, N.J., Barnstable Town, Mass., and Boise City-Nampa, Idaho also saw home price gains of 30% or more.

The most expensive real estate market in the U.S. remains San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif., where median prices rose to $1.5 million, up 11.1% from a year ago. Homes in San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, Calif. and Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine, Calif., also cost upwards of $1 million on average.

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