The risks of a double-dip recession—if we ever got out of the first one—are actually a lot higher than people are talking about right now,” [David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff] said. “I think that it’s almost a foregone conclusion, a virtual certainty.”
And here is an interview of Rosenberg at the WSJ: The Big Interview with David Rosenberg
In an interview with WSJ’s Kelly Evans, Gluskin Sheff’s Chief Economist David Rosenberg warned that the chances of a double-dip recession are greater than 50-50 and that the recession may not have ended last year at all.
And Neil Irwin at the WaPo has a summary of a Goldman Sachs research: Goldman Sachs economists: No double dip (probably)
“We think a double dip [recession] has a meaningful probability–25 to 30% in our estimation–but it is not in our base case. A big reason for this judgment is that several key components of private-sector activity have already fallen to levels that are quite low relative to historical averages or underlying fundamentals.”
“We note the following five sources of protection against a renewed downturn in economic activity–areas where we think the scope for further downside to US real GDP is limited.”