Well, in what should not have been a surprise to anyone, from economists at the Federal Reserve down to an eighth grader, US employment increased during the month of September.

Further, what should not have been a surprise to anyone, but apparently was, August job figures were significantly revised. Originally, the US Department of Labor had estimated that the economy added only 4,000 jobs during the month of August, a huge drop from previous months. Everyone lost their minds and senses over the report. They were therefore relieved that the Federal Reserve ended up dropping the fed fund rates, in mid-September.

I didn’t see one quote from anyone saying that they were skeptical of the August numbers; I was, I was very skeptical, so now of course I wish I had actually said so, so that now I’d be considered a genius.

Anyway, the August numbers were revised – employers added 89,000 jobs in August, not 4,000, and added 110,000 jobs in September. (Yes, the September number is an estimate, just like August’s was. No, I don’t know what the real September number will be, but I bet it’ll be a lot closer to the estimate …)

Further, 93,000 jobs were created in July instead of 68,000 it previously reported

OMG, who is doing their data collection???

So, now everyone will start worrying about what the Fed’s next step will be. Will it continue to drop rates, fearing a recession, or will it pause, fearing inflation?

I don’t know. But, I can’t wait to read endless analyses about it, over the coming weeks!

Source: Strong job growth eases recession fears – By Glenn Somerville, Reuters

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Updated:  1st Q 2018



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