Yesterday, we discussed how most projections from the Boston real estate community are calling for a quick recovery from this economic downturn, and today, I have found research on previous post-pandemic recoveries, and what top economist expect how our recovery will take place. Warning: If you’re a Boston real estate broker, you may not want to read the rest of this blog post.
Unfortunately, there are some in the business community who believe our recovery may take longer than most Boston real estate brokers were hoping for, instead of V- shape recovery, we might be headed for a U-shaped recovery, where the return to previous levels of economic success won’t occur until the middle of next year. Yesterday, Reuters released a poll of U.S. and European economists which revealed that most surveyed are now leaning more toward a U-shaped recovery.
Here are the results of that poll:
Why the disparity in thinking among economist and Boston real estate brokers?
The current situation makes it extremely difficult to project the future of the economy and the Boston real estate market. Analysts normally look at economic data and compare it to previous slowdowns to create their projections. This situation, however, is anything but normal.
Today, analysts must incorporate algorithms from three different sciences into their recovery equation:
1. Business Science – How has the economy rebounded from similar slowdowns in the past?
2. Health Science – When will COVID-19 be under control? Will there be another flare-up of the virus this fall?
3. Social Science – After businesses are fully operational, how long will it take American consumers to return to normal consumption patterns? (Ex: buying Boston condos for sale, attending a sporting event, or traveling by plane).
The challenge of accurately combining the three sciences into a single projection has created uncertainty, and it has led to a wide range of opinions on the timing of the recovery.
