Boston Real Estate
There is discussion of another housing bubble. I wouldn’t call the current situation a “bubble”.
From the calculated Risk Bog:
A bubble requires both overvaluation based on fundamentals and speculation. It is natural to focus on an asset’s fundamental value, but the real key for detecting a bubble is speculation … Speculation tends to chase appreciating assets, and then speculation begets more speculation, until finally, for some reason that will become obvious to all in hindsight, the “bubble” bursts.
Maybe Boston condo prices are too high based on fundamentals (due to extremely low supply and record low mortgage rates), but there is very little evidence of speculation (not like the loose lending of the housing bubble).
Ben Carlson discusses lending (and other issues) in Why This is Not Another Housing Bubble.
The lack of wild speculation doesn’t mean house prices can’t decline, but it means that we won’t see cascading declines in prices like what happened when the housing bubble burst. In the 2006 through 2011 period, as prices fell, and teaser rates and other “affordability products” expired – more and more homeowners were forced to sell (or just walk away).
Boston Real Estate and the Bottom Line
We might see some Boston real estate price declines, but the recent buyers are all well qualified, and some price declines will not lead to forced selling. So there is no threat to the financial system with widespread defaults.
From a historical perspective, Boston condo for sale prices are high. But lending standards have been solid, and we haven’t seen significant speculation – so I wouldn’t call this a bubble
