Forecast: Boston and national home prices moving forward
Many people have questions about Boston condo prices right now. How much have prices risen over the past 12 months? What’s happening with home values right now? What’s projected for next year? Here’s a look at the answers to all three of these questions.
How much have home values appreciated over the last 12 months?
According to the latest Home Price Index from CoreLogic, home values have increased by 18.1% compared to this time last year. Additionally, prices have gone up at an accelerated pace for each of the last eight months (see graph below):
The increase in the rate of appreciation that’s shown by CoreLogic coincides with data from the other two main home price indices: the FHFA Home Price Index and the S&P Case Shiller Index.
The last year has shown tremendous home price appreciation, which is resulting in a major gain in wealth for homeowners through rising equity.
What’s happening with home prices right now?
Year-over-year appreciation is still close to 20%, but it’s clearly plateauing at that rate. Many experts believe it will drop below 15% by the end of the year.
Keep in mind, that doesn’t mean home values will depreciate. It means the rate of appreciation will slow, but above the 25-year average of 5.1%.
All three indices mentioned above also show that while appreciation is in the high double digits right now, that price acceleration is beginning to level off (see graph below):
What about real estate prices next year?
The recent surge in prices is the result of heavy buyer demand and a shortage of homes available for sale. Most experts believe that as more housing inventory comes to market (both new construction and existing homes), the supply and demand for housing will come more into balance. That balance will bring a lower rate of appreciation in 2022. Here’s a look at home price forecasts from six major entities, and they all project future appreciation:
- Fannie Mae
- Freddie Mac
- Mortgage Bankers Association
- Home Price Expectation Survey
- Zelman & Associates
- National Association of Realtors
While the projected rate of appreciation varies among the experts, due to things like supply chain challenges, virus variants, and more, it’s clear that home values will continue to appreciate next year.
Boston Condos and the Bottom Line
There have been historic levels of home price appreciation over the last year. That pace will slow as we finish 2021 and enter into 2022. Prices will still rise in value, just at a much more moderate pace, which is good news for the housing market.
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Boston Condos for sale
Forecast: Boston and national home prices moving forward
Homebuyers in the Boston area should brace themselves — again — amid expectations that the residential real estate market could jump 15% next year — on top of a previous one-year increase of 13.1%, according to a new study by Porch.
A dwindling supply is being blamed for skyrocketing home prices in the Bay State, where the median price clocks in at $573,182.
Currently, Boston is ranked No. 33 out of 51 large metro real estate markets expected to grow the most in the next year. And Boston is not the only Massachusetts city to feature in these new price predictions. Worcester ranks at No. 29 among midsized metros with a projected growth of 16.1% and Springfield ranks No. 41 with a projected growth of 14.2%. Among smaller metro areas, Barnstable ranks at No. 5 with 24.8% projected growth.
With a median home price of nearly $459,000, Austin, Texas, tops the list at No. 1. Home prices there are anticipated to rise by a staggering 37%.
Boston Condos for sale
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The following information is from Zillow study:
Rate of homes going under contract slows slightly, but time on market still short
- Buyers are still extremely keen to purchase houses, with newly pending sales up 21.8% compared to last year. However, the frenzied activity of the summer is showing signs of the typical fall slowdown, dropping 2.8% compared to a month ago and down 1% since the week prior.
- Typical time-on-market for listings stayed steady at 13 days, which is 14 days quicker than last year. Among the 50 largest U.S. markets, Cincinnati and Columbus, Ohio, shared the shortest typical time on market at four days to pending. Nashville posted the longest typical time on market at 33 days, while New York and Virginia Beach both marked 32.
Inventory shortage falls further
- Total inventory dropped even further in a steady decline that began the first week of June. For-sale listings fell an enormous 34.6% below this week last year; the largest year-over-year deficit seen since Zillow’s weekly stats began in 2019.
- There were 13.6% fewer new listings last week than at this point last year.
Prices soar amid strong demand and low supply
- The median sale price continued its meteoric rise to $284,000 as of the week ending Aug. 8, 8.7% higher than the previous year and the largest year-over-year increase seen since at least the beginning of 2019. Sale prices were up 2% over the month prior.
- The median list price rose to $345,000, a full 10% over last year but just 0.1% higher than a month prior.
New home sales astound
- New home sales have been particularly robust, even within this astounding buying season. The annualized pace of new home sales in August exceeded 1 million homes — a benchmark unseen since 2006.
Metropolitan Area* | Newly | Newly | Median | Total | New | New | Median | Median |
United States | 21.8% | -1.0% | 13 | -34.6% | -13.6% | 4.2% | 284000 | 8.7% |
New York/Newark, NY/NJ | 60.4% | 0.8% | 32 | -20.1% | -11.5% | -0.8% | 445000 | 2.7% |
Los Angeles, CA | 8.1% | 0.7% | 12 | -24.9% | 8.4% | 3.4% | 713375 | 7.7% |
Chicago, IL | 38.2% | -2.2% | 13 | -28.5% | -1.0% | 8.7% | 264500 | 7.3% |
Dallas-Fort Worth, TX | 30.6% | -0.3% | 23 | -31.8% | -24.4% | 1.4% | 303812 | 9.1% |
Philadelphia, PA | 37.1% | 3.3% | 9 | -37.3% | -5.8% | 10.5% | 279000 | 5.3% |
Houston, TX | 25.4% | -0.2% | 17 | -29.1% | -17.3% | 8.2% | 271529 | 9.9% |
Washington, DC | 21.8% | 2.9% | 7 | -34.4% | -1.6% | 3.6% | 459431 | 8.4% |
Miami-Fort Lauderdale, FL | 40.1% | 2.6% | 27 | -13.4% | -12.3% | 4.6% | 329750 | 12.4% |
Atlanta, GA | 15.8% | -3.3% | 14 | -30.6% | -22.0% | 6.3% | 283850 | 10.4% |
Boston, MA | 6.3% | 2.4% | 8 | -30.5% | -18.9% | 1.6% | 522500 | 8.1% |
San Francisco, CA | 34.4% | -1.6% | 12 | -4.3% | 3.1% | 24.0% | 896500 | 12.1% |
Detroit, MI | 41.8% | -3.3% | 8 | -38.1% | -14.9% | 12.1% | 222975 | 11.7% |
Riverside, CA | 12.0% | -1.4% | 9 | -48.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 411250 | 10.3% |
Phoenix, AZ | 18.9% | 3.1% | 11 | -21.6% | 0.0% | 11.9% | 322500 | 11.9% |
Seattle, WA | 20.5% | -2.3% | 6 | -32.2% | -6.3% | -2.8% | 535525 | 11.1% |
Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN | 31.2% | 1.1% | 17 | -27.1% | 3.9% | -0.3% | 311625 | 9.3% |
San Diego, CA | 8 | -38.2% | 2.5% | -1.7% | 635188 | 8.9% | ||
St. Louis, MO | 16.8% | -1.6% | 6 | -38.4% | -11.2% | 14.7% | 217912 | 10.7% |
Tampa, FL | 8 | -34.8% | -16.4% | -4.4% | 258409 | 9.5% | ||
Baltimore, MD | 17.2% | 6.6% | 12 | -44.8% | -12.7% | 9.3% | 317500 | 0.8% |
Denver, CO | 25.8% | -1.5% | 6 | -34.2% | 16.2% | 21.8% | 462881 | 6.5% |
Pittsburgh, PA | 52.3% | 1.3% | 9 | -27.2% | -2.3% | 11.8% | 199499 | 7.7% |
Portland, OR | 21.9% | -5.5% | 6 | -37.0% | -28.4% | -1.3% | 440225 | 8.6% |
Charlotte, NC | -1.8% | -1.1% | 6 | -42.9% | -19.2% | 14.2% | 286500 | 8.5% |
Sacramento, CA | 18.3% | -1.5% | 7 | -44.1% | 0.3% | 1.6% | 452875 | 8.1% |
San Antonio, TX | 34.4% | 0.6% | 27 | -25.7% | -23.1% | 11.0% | 252812 | 8.2% |
Orlando, FL | 12 | -17.0% | -3.0% | 11.4% | 282562 | 7.8% | ||
Cincinnati, OH | 12.0% | 0.7% | 4 | -39.1% | -3.7% | 21.9% | 212125 | 11.8% |
Cleveland, OH | 70.9% | 0.3% | 18 | -39.8% | -0.8% | -2.5% | 175350 | 9.6% |
Kansas City, MO | 15.4% | -0.6% | 5 | -43.7% | -4.9% | 22.8% | 259250 | 12.7% |
Las Vegas, NV | 18.5% | -1.4% | 15 | -23.3% | 8.3% | 2.3% | 304750 | -0.1% |
Columbus, OH | 18.6% | 0.6% | 4 | -40.1% | -11.4% | 10.4% | 240500 | 16.1% |
Indianapolis, IN | 14.0% | 2.4% | 5 | -41.0% | 6.7% | 31.9% | 222625 | 8.4% |
San Jose, CA | -9.7% | -3.5% | 15 | -20.2% | 20.3% | 18.1% | 1139375 | 8.6% |
Austin, TX | 29.2% | 2.0% | 8 | -37.0% | -2.9% | 41.5% | 357978 | 12.4% |
Virginia Beach, VA | 32 | -40.7% | -1.3% | 0.7% | 276912 | 8.1% | ||
Nashville, TN | 33 | -24.0% | -36.9% | 17.5% | 317850 | 5.1% | ||
Providence, RI | -2.9% | 3.7% | 13 | -38.3% | -24.4% | 4.2% | 318600 | 5.4% |
Milwaukee, WI | 28 | -6.5% | -6.2% | 31.2% | 207475 | 6.9% | ||
Jacksonville, FL | 43.2% | 1.4% | 14 | -36.7% | -17.0% | 0.2% | 268362 | 1.3% |
Memphis, TN | 33.9% | 1.1% | 7 | -45.4% | -20.2% | 6.1% | 209212 | 7.0% |
Oklahoma City, OK | 20.4% | -4.6% | 10 | -35.5% | -6.2% | 24.8% | 205750 | 12.5% |
Louisville, KY | 3.0% | -0.6% | 5 | -43.9% | -8.3% | 1.3% | 217812 | 9.0% |
Hartford, CT | 49.6% | -1.3% | 10 | -41.5% | 5.7% | 10.9% | 258800 | 7.8% |
Richmond, VA | 6 | -39.9% | -10.0% | 9.3% | 284688 | 7.9% | ||
New Orleans, LA | 4.1% | -1.7% | 17 | -44.0% | -20.8% | -2.0% | 232875 | 6.6% |
Buffalo, NY | 18.7% | -2.5% | 10 | -36.2% | -8.6% | -0.3% | 189850 | 9.7% |
Raleigh, NC | 15.0% | 1.3% | 5 | -41.4% | -25.7% | 13.1% | 312812 | 5.8% |
Birmingham, AL | 43.2% | 0.9% | 8 | -35.4% | 9.3% | 22.3% | 224942 | 4.8% |
salt Lake City, UTS | 6 | -45.5% | -33.7% | 29.8% | 381916 | 11.2% |
And it’s also worth noting: This is Massachusetts. Our housing market here has been crazy due to COVID, and there’s simply not enough new housing here to meet demand. That means … well, you figure it out.
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Updated: 2021
