The above numbers may look like the halftime score of yesterday’s Celtics game. But they’re actually Karl Case’s odds for a double-dip housing market — 55 percent in favor of recovery, 45 percent in favor of a double dip.
The article also gives a definition of a double dip: “an initial fall where 10 of 12 months show month-to-month price declines; a rebound where five consecutive months show price increases; and a second drop of five consecutive months of price declines.”
The “shadow inventory” seems to be the big worry looming out there. But the hunch here is that there won’t be a double dip, going strictly by the definition above. There might be a dip after April’s home sales frenzy. But five months of declines? We’ll see.
File under: Take the odds.
