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The following Q&A comes from the HW+ exclusive Slack channel, where HousingWire’s Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami answered questions on what to make of the latest housing data, his forecast for the rest of this year, and whether or not the housing market is returning to normal. He also addresses how he foresees the Delta variant impacting the housing market. Looking at the data, it’s not as simple as comparing year-over-year changes or even monthly changes since the past year was filled with never-before-seen situations.

The following Q&A has been lightly edited for length and clarity.

HousingWire: There’s so much happening in the housing market right now, it’s hard to stay on top of the latest data and what it means. What are the top takeaways that people should know about the market right now?

Logan Mohtashami:

  1. We have a lot of crazy housing data, but when you make COVID-19 adjustments and work on the moderation from the parabolic run-up from the 2nd half of 2020, not much is happening in sales data. This looks very normal to me, especially with the existing home sales data that ended 2020 with 5,640,000, which is only 130,000 more than 2017 levels. 
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2. We see that in the new home sales market as well, which the data got extremely wild.

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3. The uptrend is new home sales working from the weakest housing recovery from 2008-2019 is still intact even with the extremely high cost through price inflation buyers had to deal with in 2020/2021.

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4. Of course, the main reason why I say this is the unhealthiest housing market post-2010 is that pricing has gone straight vertical in the existing home sales market, not because of a credit boom but because of a raw shortage of homes. This was my big fear. 

5. The 5-year cumulative price growth model that I had for years 2020-2024, which I believed things would be okay if we just only had 23% price growth during this period, has been smashed before two years.

8-Real-home-prices-year-over-year

That gives a headline look at what we are dealing with currently.

2021 Predictions – Boston real estate market

Unlike the leadup to the great recession, home buyers are actually solvent right now with excellent credit and strong stock portfolios,” the “Mad Money” host said.

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Ford Realty Inc., Boston Real Estate for Sale

Ford Realty Inc., Boston Real Estate for Sale

Boston Condos for Sale Search

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2021 Predictions – Boston real estate market

The Boston real estate market was a shining star in 2021, fueling the economic turnaround throughout the country. As we look forward to 2021 and beyond, can we expect real estate to continue showing such promise? Here’s what four experts have to say about the year ahead.

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist, National Association of Realtors (NAR)

“In 2021, I think rates will be similar or modestly higher, maybe 3%…So, mortgage rates will continue to be historically favorable.”

Danielle Hale, Chief Economistrealtor.com

We expect sales to grow 7 percent and prices to rise another 5.7 percent on top of 2020’s already high levels.”

Robert Dietz, Senior Vice President and Chief EconomistNational Association of Home Builders (NAHB)

“With home builder confidence near record highs, we expect continued gains for single-family construction, albeit at a lower growth rate than in 2019. Some slowing of new home sales growth will occur due to the fact that a growing share of sales has come from homes that have not started construction. Nonetheless, buyer traffic will remain strong given favorable demographics, a shifting geography of housing demand to lower-density markets and historically low interest rates.”

Mark Fleming, Chief Economist, First American

“Mortgage rates are expected to remain low for the foreseeable future and millennials will continue forming households, keeping demand robust, even if income growth moderates. Despite the best intentions of home builders to provide more housing supply, the big short in housing supply will continue into 2021 and likely keep house price appreciation flying high.”

Boston Real Estate and the Bottom Line

Whether you’re ready to buy or sell a Boston condo in 2021, if you’re planning to take advantage of the market this winter, contact a trusted real estate professional to learn about the opportunities available in your local market.

The huge demographic groundswell of house-ready millennials will drive prices much higher.  

The demand is in place between millennials, downsizers, move-uppers, and out-of-towners to easily increase sales by 10% 

Boston Condos for Sale Search

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Ford Realty Inc., Boston Real Estate for Sale

Ford Realty Inc., Boston Real Estate for Sale

Boston Condos for Sale Search

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