The December jobs data, which showed 50,000 jobs added and significant negative revisions for prior months, indicates a cooling labor market, which generally supports downward pressure on mortgage rates. However, recent rate movements have been mixed due to other factors, with the average 30-year fixed rate hovering around 6.16% as of early January 2026.

December 2025 Jobs Report Overview

The U.S. economy’s job growth in December was below initial expectations and, combined with prior revisions, capped 2025 as the weakest year for job creation since the pandemic, excluding recession years.

Metric	December 2025 Data	Forecast	Prior Month Revision (Nov)
Jobs Added (Nonfarm Payrolls)	50,000	73,000	Downward to 56,000
Unemployment Rate	4.4%	4.5%	Downward to 4.5%
Total Revisions (Oct & Nov)	–76,000	—	—

Key Insights

Weakening Trend: The slow job growth and substantial downward revisions for October and November data underscore a significant loss of momentum in the labor market, which can signal a broader economic slowdown.
Rate Cuts Unlikely in the Near-Term: Despite the weak job growth, a tick-down in the unemployment rate to 4.4% made an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its January 2026 meeting seem less likely to some analysts, causing some market fluctuations.
External Factors: Mortgage rates saw a brief drop due to an announcement by President Trump directing government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) to purchase billions in mortgage-backed securities, an action that directly impacts the mortgage market regardless of the jobs data.
2026 Outlook: Most experts predict mortgage rates will gradually decline in 2026, potentially falling below 6% as the labor market cools and inflation concerns ease, but volatility is expected.