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Where will mortgage rates go after Trump’s state of the union address?

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Where will mortgage rates go after Trump’s state of the union address?

Following President Trump’s 2026 State of the Union address on February 24, 2026, mortgage rates are expected to drift slightly lower or remain stable in the low-6% range. During the speech, Trump highlighted that rates have already fallen from their 2025 highs of over 7% to a current three-year low of approximately 6.0%. To further drive down costs, he detailed a directive for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities, a “wild card” move intended to narrow mortgage spreads and reduce borrowing costs for consumers.
 
Current Mortgage Rate Landscape (February 25, 2026)
 
As of February 25, 2026, average rates for fixed-rate mortgages are as follows:
  • 30-Year Fixed: 5.945% to 6.07%
  • 15-Year Fixed: 5.286% to 5.45%
  • 30-Year FHA: 5.859%
  • 30-Year VA: 5.608%
     
2026 Forecasts Post-Address
 
While the administration predicts rates will continue “falling fast,” most independent analysts project a more gradual stabilization throughout 2026.
  • Fannie Mae: Predicts rates will average 6.1% in Q1 2026 and 6.0% by Q3 2026.
  • Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA): Forecasts rates holding steady at 6.1% through most of 2026, with potential to reach 6.5% by year-end if fiscal pressures persist.
  • National Association of Realtors (NAR): Projects an average of 6.0% for the year.
  • Redfin & Realtor.com: Expect rates to hover around 6.3%, with occasional dips below 6.0% depending on Federal Reserve actions.
     
Key Drivers and “Wild Cards”
  • Bond-Buying Program: The $200 billion purchase of mortgage bonds is designed to lower rates by increasing demand. However, economists warn the effect may be temporary if not supported by broader Federal Reserve monetary policy.
  • Inflation and Tariffs: Analysts note that other administration policies, such as new tariffs, could exert inflationary pressure, potentially offsetting rate cuts and keeping long-term yields elevated.
  • Housing Reform: Beyond rates, Trump called for a permanent ban on large institutional investors buying single-family homes to increase available inventory for families.

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The property listing data and information, or the Images, set forth herein were provided to MLS Property Information Network, Inc. from third-party sources, including sellers, lessors, landlords, and public records, and were compiled by MLS Property Information Network, Inc. The property listing data and information, and the Images, are for the personal, noncommercial use of consumers having a good faith interest in purchasing, leasing, or renting listed properties of the type displayed to them and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties which such consumers may have a good faith interest in purchasing, leasing or renting. MLS Property Information Network, Inc. and its subscribers disclaim any and all representations and warranties as to the accuracy of the property listing data and information, or as to the accuracy of any of the Images, set forth herein.
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