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Boston condo buyers want to know: Experts thoughts on future mortgage rates

In this Boston real estate blog post, we look into the borrowing costs that Boston condo for sale buyers and now facing, and what the future will hold moving forward towards 2023. This year, in 2022 we have seen a big jump in mortgage rates compared to just one year ago. Even though they’ve moderated a bit recently, mortgage rates are more than two percentage points higher than at the start of the year, after registering the biggest quarterly climb in 28 years in the first quarter. Most housing experts say rates may not get much higher from here for the rest of 2022, but they’re also not likely to plunge any time soon. Let’s see what the experts have to say for 2023.


Boston condo buyers want to know: Experts thoughts on future mortgage rates

Overall experts are forecasting that the 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage will vary from 5% to 6% throughout 2022:

What is the Mortgage Bankers Association projections for 2022 into 2023?

  • Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA): “Given the weaker outlook for growth, we continue to estimate a 50% likelihood of a mild recession over the next 12 months. If this materializes with a recession in the first half of 2023, the employment rate is expected to reach 5.5% by the end of 2023 and mortgage rates would fall around 30 basis points from the baseline forecast level [of 5.2%].”
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Where does the NAR see mortgage rates ending up in 2022?

  • National Association of Realtors (NAR) Chief Economist Lawrence Yun: “The peak in mortgage rates for this year may have already occurred in the middle of June at nearly 6%. There was an overshooting of rates at that time in an uncertain inflationary environment. Now, with gas prices steadily retreating, consumer price inflation may also have already peaked. That means the 30-year mortgage rate could settle down at around 5.5% for the remainder of the year.”
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Does see mortgage interest rates rising to 6%?

  • Yes, see mortgage rates settling in at the 6% range.
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Where does Freddie Mac forecast mortgage rates for the remainder of 2022?

  • Freddie Mac: “We forecast 30-year fixed rates to average 5% in 2022 and rise to 5.1% in 2023.”
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What are my Boston condo thoughts on mortgage interest rates?

My thoughts I see inflation calming down and the housing market is now showing signs of a slowdown, thus, I think interest rates will remain below the 6% threshold into 2023.

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