Forecasting the national real estate market for the remainder of 2023
Updated Fall 2023:
Mortgage rates have more than doubled, Boston condo sales —have slowed down the last few months. Boston condo prices — are continue to rise, but at a slower pace, inventory remains a problems as Boston condo byers are hitting the brakes, and uncertainty is permeating the market. It’s no wonder many homeowners, prospective sellers and hopeful buyers are feeling nervous.
As we start the Fall 2023 season the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was once again flirting with 7 percent and above. The Federal Reserve raised rates for 10 meetings in a row in an effort to curb inflation, before taking a pause at its last meeting. And sales of previously owned homes are down more than 20 percent since last spring, according to the National Association of Realtors’ most recent existing-home sales report.
Industry experts have varying forecasts and projections about where mortgage rates, home prices, buyer competition, housing supply, sales activity and home affordability are headed over the course of the rest of the year. Curious what you think?
Quote from the Case-Shiller boss (who keeps talking like we’re all clear):
“Home prices in the U.S. began to fall after June 2022, and May’s data bolster the case that the final month of the decline was January 2023. Granted, the last four months’ price gains could be truncated by increases in mortgage rates or by general economic weakness. But the breadth and strength of May’s report are consistent with an optimistic view of future months.”
What about the rest of 2023?
The different national measuring sticks should track a fairly flat trend like last year. The Case-Shiller Index was the most dramatic of the bunch: