Housing experts weigh in on 2025 housing recession
Boston Condos for Sale and Apartments for Rent
Housing experts weigh in on 2025 housing recession
Recession talk is all over the news, and the odds of a recession are rising this year. And that leaves people wondering what would happen to the Boston condo for sale market if we do go into a recession.
Let’s take a look at some historical data to show what’s happened in housing for each recession going all the way back to the 1980s.
A Recession Doesn’t Mean Home Prices Will Fall
Many people think that if a recession hits, Seaport and South Boston condo prices will fall like they did in 2008. But that was an exception, not the rule. It was the only time we saw such a steep drop in prices. And it hasn’t happened since.
In fact, according to data from CoreLogic, in four of the last six recessions, home prices actually went up (see graph below):
So, if you’re thinking about buying or selling a Seaport condo, don’t assume a recession will lead to a crash in home prices. The data simply doesn’t support that idea. Instead, home prices usually follow whatever trajectory they’re already on. And right now, nationally, home prices are still rising at a more normal pace.
Mortgage Rates Typically Decline During Recessions
While home prices tend to stay on their current path, mortgage rates usually drop during economic slowdowns. Again, looking at data from the last six recessions, mortgage rates fell each time (see graph below):
So, a recession means mortgage rates could decline based on the data. While that would help with affordability, don’t expect the return of a 3% rate.
Boston Condos and the Bottom Line
The answer to the recession question is still unknown, but the odds have gone up. But that doesn’t mean you have to wonder about the impact on the housing market – historical data tells us what usually happens.
When you hear talk about a possible recession, what concerns or questions come to mind about buying or selling a home?
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Housing experts weigh in on 2025 housing recession
here are my four key economic indicators to determine the likelihood of a looming recession:
- Rising inflation
- Rising interest rates
- An inverted yield curve
- Soaring oil prices
Of these four, the first three markers are especially concerning. The economists at Deutsche Bank studied 34 past U.S. recessions dating back to 1854. They found that once these macroeconomic factors hit a specific threshold, it correlated with a very high probability of a subsequent recession. As you can imagine, a combination of more than one of these factors makes a recession even more likely overall. And although it’s impossible to predict a recession with 100% accuracy based on any one of the markers individually, it’s when they stack up that economists take note.
Updated: Boston Condo for Sale Website 2025
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Will the U.S housing market experience a housing recession in 2023, housing experts weigh in.
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Will the U.S housing market experience a housing recession in 2025, housing experts weigh in.
