If you’re a Boston condo owner or seller, you may not want to  read this.

Own a Boston condominium? Brace yourself for an even longer recovery than anticipated. A new home ownership and home-buyers survey released jointly by Trulia.com and RealtyTrac suggests we won’t see a housing recovery until 2014 at the earliest now. WTF?

It’s that monstrous hangover of foreclosures, of course.

“Absent those [government-backed] entities there is no mortgage market and there is no housing market,” warns Sharga.

And some say, there’s no private mortgage market either. Banks are not writing mortgages, unless they know they can be immediately flipped to Fanny or Freddie. Oh, yeah, and the buyers themselves:

Potential buyers also seem hesitant to take the home ownership plunge right now. More than two-thirds of the 704 renters polled for the survey expressed plans to wait two years or more before buying a place. If this reflects the larger American sentiment, coupled with the fact that borrowing money has a become painstakingly more difficult process, expect the lack of prospective buyers to drive prices down in the market as well.

But for some unknown reason (at least to the writer of this Boston Real Estate Blog) apparently there is optimism:

Even so, Trulia and RealtyTrac remain steadfast that home values for the U.S. housing market as a whole is close to hitting bottom, likely doing so this year or at some point within the next 18 months. Just expect the market to stay on that bottom for a long time to come.

I think we all should be optimistic. Somehow, someway, the Boston condo market will improve. By  magic? Unicorn dust? New bursts of newsmaven positive propaganda from the NAR  which is coming out every month saying the housing markets are improving, when they’re not?

Perhaps I’m being too harsh. You might not believe this, but I have eight Boston condos currently under agreement, which is more than my office sold all of this year. And let us not forget, the Massachusetts unemployment picture is improving. So yeah, I can see a bounce  in the local Boston condo market, I just can’t give you the exact date (err… or year)

File Under: Dead ducks don’t bounce.

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