Thoughts on inflation
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Fed lifts rates for first time in three years as inflation persists

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates at its latest meeting, marking the first increase in three years as inflation remains well above the Fed’s target rate.
In a unanimous 12-0 vote, the Fed’s Open Market Committee voted to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.25% to 3.75% to 4.00%.
Energy shocks from the wars in Iran and Ukraine have raised cost of fuel across the board, with the price of a gallon of diesel topping $6 for the first time in history this week. At the same time, unemployment fears that triggered rate cuts last year proved overblown, as the unemployment rate has remained steady.
“Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace,” the FOMC said following its meeting. “While uncertainty remains elevated owing, in part, to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient.
“Productivity growth is strong, and capital investment is robust. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.”
The Fed has a dual mandate to achieve maximum employment and keep inflation below 2%.
High interest rates on home mortgages have sapped much of the housing market’s momentum this year, as the average contract interest rate for a 30-year mortgage almost hit 7% in the Mortgage Bankers Association’s most recent Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey, which was released just ahead of the FOMC’s Sept. 16 announcement. Mortgage applications slid 4.1% in the week ended Sept. 11, according to the survey.
“Housing and mortgage activity slowed abruptly as mortgage rates moved higher over the past several weeks,” MBA Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni said after the Fed hike. “MBA forecasts two additional hikes from the Fed over the next year and expects mortgage rates to stay near current levels over the forecast horizon.”
Longer-term interest rates, such as mortgages, have largely priced in this latest increase as well as future Fed hikes and are not expected to have much of a reaction to today’s news, Fratantoni said.
Thoughts on inflation
Thoughts on inflation
Inflation is the rate at which the price of goods and services increases. As a result of inflation, the purchasing power (value) of money decreases over time. Inflation affects the prices of everything around us.
Generally speaking, inflation can be caused by a number of factors. The recent surge in inflation has been driven, at least in part, by supply chain issues, pent-up consumer demand and economic stimulus from the pandemic.
» Learn more: When will inflation go down?
What is inflation?
Types of inflation
There are many types of inflation, characterized by either a root cause or the rate of increase:
Cost-push. A common cause of inflation is when the costs of producing goods and services increase and push prices higher. This can happen when prices of raw materials or labor costs rise.
Demand-pull. Another cause of inflation is when the demand for goods and services outstrips what can be produced at the time, making prices go up.
Deflation. The opposite of inflation — a negative inflation rate or a drop in prices of goods and services.
Disinflation. A falling rate of inflation or slowdown in the rise in prices of goods and services.
Reflation. A way to curb deflation, when a government purposely stimulates the economy by increasing the money supply or government spending — such as the COVID stimulus payments. Reflation can also happen when a government lowers interest rates.
Creeping. Low or mild inflation with prices rising less than 3% a year.
Walking (trotting). Prices rise moderately, but the annual inflation rate stays in the single digits.
Running (galloping). Prices increase significantly into the double digits, above 10% a year.
Hyperinflation. Extraordinary inflation spiraling out of control, over 1,000% a year.
Stagflation. High inflation even during an economic downturn.
Updated: Boston Real Estate Blog 2023
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