Top New England Economist Predictions…..…
Boston Condos for Sale and Apartments for Rent
Top New England Economist Predictions…..…
| Metric | New England Data | US Data | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Rate | 4.2% | 4.4% | Nov 2025/Dec 2025 |
| Private-Sector Job Growth (YoY) | 0.6% | 0.7% | Oct 2025 |
| Inflation (CPI YoY) | 3.2% | 3.0% | Sep 2025 |
| House Price Growth (YoY) | 4.7% | 2.3% | Aug 2025 |
- Labor Market The region’s private-sector employment growth has been modest, consistently lagging the national pace. A significant trend is the 27% year-over-year increase in continued unemployment insurance claims in October 2025, a much larger jump than the 4% nationally, indicating a weakening labor demand.
- Inflation & Wages Inflation has remained slightly higher in New England, largely due to rapidly increasing shelter and medical care prices. This was compounded by a decline in real wages and salaries for private industry workers in 2024, as wage growth did not keep pace with the region’s higher inflation rate.
- Real Estate The housing market remains tight with persistently low supply, driving house prices up at more than double the national rate. In contrast, the commercial office market, especially in the Boston, MA area, faces high vacancy rates and stagnant rents, reflecting a slow recovery from remote work trends.
- Economic Outlook The New England economy is expected to see modest real GDP growth of around 1.8% for 2025. Concerns remain regarding the impacts of federal research funding cuts and trade uncertainty on key sectors, although strong investment in AI and data center projects is providing some support.
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Top New England Economist Predictions…..…
CoreLogic: Northeast, New England states lead U.S. home-price gains
Chicago, Miami and Las Vegas led major cities for price appreciation for the year ending in November
In the years following the COVID-19 pandemic, home prices have steadily risen, although 2024 saw more stabilized levels of affordability across the nation. According to property data provider CoreLogic, 17 states posted new home-price records in November.
CoreLogic released its November 2024 Home Price Index (HPI) and HPI forecast this week, which showed that U.S. single-family home prices increased by 3.4% year over year in November. On a monthly basis, prices were essentially flat. The median sale price for a single-family home in November was $395,000, up $10,000 from October.
CoreLogic anticipated a 20 basis-point decline in prices heading into December 2024. Although the company hasn’t released price data for last month, a new Realtor.com report highlighted a 180-bps decline for the year ending in December.
Chicago ranked No. 1 in annualized home-price gains among the 10 metro areas tracked by CoreLogic in November. In the Windy City, home prices ramped up 5.8% year over year.
Miami had the second-highest gain at 5.6%, followed by Las Vegas (+4.9%); Washington, D.C. (+4.9%); Boston (+4.6%); San Diego (+4.2%); Los Angeles (+3.4%); Houston (+2.8%); Phoenix (+1.9%); and Denver (+1.7%). CoreLogic described six of these cities as overvalued.
Northeastern and New England states led the way for annualized price appreciation in November. Prices in New Jersey were up 7.8%, followed by Rhode Island (+7.3%) and New Hampshire (+6.9%).
CoreLogic chief economist Selma Hepp believes that further cooling of price growth could continue for the foreseeable future.
“Heading into the end of the year, home prices remained relatively flat though showing some marginal improvement from the weakness seen moving into the fall and following the cooling of homebuyer demand amid the summer mortgage rate surge,” Hepp said in a statement.
“Nevertheless, the cooling home price growth trend is expected to continue well into 2025, partly due to the base effect and comparison with strong early 2023 price appreciation and partly due to higher mortgage rates coming into this year and the expectations of higher rates over the course of 2025. Regionally, variations persist, as some affordable areas – including smaller metros in the Midwest — remain in high demand and continue to see upward home price pressures,” she added.
CoreLogic identified five markets at high risk of price declines in 2025. These cities include Provo, Utah; Albuquerque, New Mexico; Tucson, Arizona; Phoenix; and Punta Gorda, Florida.
Potential mortgage rate increases could also hinder affordability alongside home-price appreciation. Mortgage rates remain above 7%, according to HousingWire‘s Mortgage Rates Center. CoreLogic anticipates a 380-bps increase in U.S. home prices by November 2025. Despite higher rates and prices, demand in “budget-friendly” markets remains healthy, the company explained.
Top New England Economist Predictions…..…
In this episode of the Top of Mind podcast, Mike Simonsen sits down with Rick Palacios Jr., Director of Research and a Managing Principal at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, to talk about what to expect in the real estate market in 2023.
Rick discusses the company’s latest research on homebuilder sentiment, shares their latest forecast for home prices and the economy, and talks about some secret signals to watch for changes in the market.
About Rick Palacios Jr.
Rick Palacios Jr. is the Director of Research and a Managing Principal at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, where he oversees all research pertaining to the US economy, for-sale housing, and rental markets.
Rick has 15 years of experience in residential real estate and economic research, originally joining John Burns Real Estate Consulting in 2006 and then rejoining the company in 2014 after working as a home builder Equity Research Associate at Morgan Stanley in New York. He has also worked as an Analyst at the Milken Institute, an economic think tank.
Rick holds a BA from the University of California, Irvine, and an MS in real estate economics and finance from the London School of Economics.
Here’s a glimpse of what you’ll learn:
- Why new home construction might accelerate the housing market slump
- How much home prices are likely to decline in the next two years
- The leading indicators (and secret signals!) to watch for changes in the market
- What’s happening with the second home market now
- The surprising impact of ARMs in this cycle
