As New Year’s approaches, I’m often asked what are my Boston housing predictions for the coming year.
This year, I refuse to do a Boston Real Estate Blog post on predictions. Instead, here are my baker dozen “What if” scenarios for Boston and the national housing market for 2012.
What if: The National Association of Realtors started putting out credible housing sales numbers so the public has a true understanding on how “stabilized” the housing market really is. By Jes, I think that may be classified as a miracle.
Could someone keep the Vatican’s phone number handy, just in case?
What if: Congress allows the capital gains cuts to expire and starts looking at reducing or cutting mortgage interest deductions. That would be a death blow to the Boston condo market.
Forget the Vatican, can someone find the phone number to the suicide hotline?
What If: The Fed started raising interest rates, perhaps thinking that the economy is improving. That won’t help me sell any Boston condos.
Okay, enough with these depressing what ifs, and let’s think positive.
What if: The price of oil started reflecting the actual consumer supply and demand instead of tactics of Wall Street? We’d save money, perhaps Boston apartment rents would stabilize or be reduced, thus helping more renters to become Boston condo owners. That would be nice.
What if: The economies abroad keep commodity prices down, which would limit inflation here and keep mortgage rates low. That in return would increase consumer confidence and improve the Boston condo market.
What if: The Massachuestts unemployment rate continues to drop, thus increasing consumer confidence and help fence sitters start their Boston condo search with Ford Realty (aka Boston Real Estate Blog).
Listen, I know I may have disappointed some readers by not coming out with actual predictions. But if you want to know what’s gong to happen in 2012, see the fortune teller in Downtown Crossing and tell her you’d like to know if the Boston condo market will go up or down.
She looks like she can use a good laugh, and she’ll gladly take your money.