Radar Logic is out with its November, 2007 report, analyzing the state of the US real estate market.

The six Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) showing the greatest deterioration in home prices are Sacramento, Las Vegas, San Diego, Tampa, Los Angeles and Miami. All these locales showed double-digit declines between November, 2006 and November, 2007.

Overall, of the 25 markets studied, 5 had price increases and 20 had price declines. (Milwaukee, New York City, Seattle, Philadelphia, and Charlotte were the 5 in the black.)

Prices in San Diego, Sacramento, and Las Vegas are at levels last seen in 2nd quarter, 2004; Los Angeles and Tampa are at levels last seen in 2nd quarter, 2005.

Boston’s prices are down 5%, 2006 versus 2007 (Boston MSA, that is.)

Radar Logic has performed an analysis of the US real estate market and general economy and tried to calculate what a change in the conforming loan limit would mean in the top 25 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs).

They believe that MSAs with high housing prices, such as San Jose, San Francisco, and Los Angeles, California, would benefit most. In San Jose, for example, 47% of home loans could potentially qualify as conforming loans, up from just 5% of loans, today.

In Massachusetts, 73% of loans qualify, today; based on Radar Logic’s analysis, up to 89% of loans would qualify under the new limit guidelines. Meaning, more buyers could qualify for “cheaper” loans.

If you want to know what’s really going on with the real estate market, you have to include Radar Logic’s analysis. It is the most comprehensive study, out there. The Shiller-Case and OFHEO numbers are useless; neither includes condominium sales in their numbers.

While it covers the Boston MSA, and not just Boston, the city, it’s a good place to start, at least. Use their numbers, and the Warren Group’s, but no one else’s.

Source: Radar Logic



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