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Existing Real Estate Sales Down in Massachusetts

A double-digit spike in the median price of a single-family home in Massachusetts in August caused sales numbers to decline for the second month in a row, according to a new report from the Warren Group. The same report found condo activity remained robust, as both prices and sales numbers increased.

In August, the median single-family home price increased 11.5% to $535,000, up from $480,000 in August 2020 and a 27.4% increase from $420,000 in August 2019. Last month’s spike marks a new all-time high for August. It was also the fifth consecutive month the median price was above $500,000, according to the report. 

While prices were up, single-family home sales themselves dropped, down 6.2%, with 6,318 sales, compared to 6,734 in August 2020. Looking back two years, sales declined 4.6% from 6,621 transactions in August 2020. 

The Warren Group CEO Tim Warren said the decline in home sales volume for two months in a row is significant. 

“The data doesn’t lie,” he said in a release. “We’ve seen both the number of new listings and months supply dwindle and the galloping real estate market has slowed to a fast trot. No doubt that the low inventory and declining number of new listings is one factor, but it may not be the only one. The median price rose 11.4% last year and gained 19.1% through July of this year. I think prices have gotten higher than a lot of people can afford. Increasingly, the people who can afford to buy have already done so, and the rest are ready to give up on home shopping.”

Condominium prices and sales continued to grow in August. Sales were up 7.6% to 2,773, compared to 2,577 in August 2020 and 2,613 in August 2019. 

The median condo sales price rose 10.6% year over year to $470,000, a new high for the month. It also marked the 13th consecutive month of prices above $400,000. August’s median condo price increased 17.1% from $401,500 in August 2019.

“Last year, as COVID-19 created uncertainty in the condo market, the number of sales slipped,” Warren said. “This year they rebounded, gaining 40.4% through July. Now, like the single-family market, we are seeing the condo inventory across Massachusetts shrink significantly. Sales are once more slowing down as prices continue to rise.” 

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Existing home-sales fell in August after making strong gains in the summer months. The National Association of Realtors says sales fell 2.7 percent last month to a 5.10 annual rate. Economists had expected home sales to rise to 5.35 million

From NAR economist Lawrence Yun:

Home sales retrenched from a very strong improvement in July but continue to be much higher than before the stimulus. The first-time buyer tax credit is having the intended impact of bringing buyers into the market, allowing them to take advantage of very favorable affordability conditions. Some of the give-back in closed sales appears to result from rising numbers of contracts entering the system, with some fallouts and a backlog contributing to a longer closing process, but the decline demonstrates we can’t take a housing rebound for granted.

First-time buyers purchased 30 percent of homes in August. The tax credit for this group is set to expire on November 30, but realtors and some economists are pushing Congress to extend it. Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics writes:

The NAR says closings are being delayed by low appraisals and slow mortgage underwriting but these are hardly new stories so they likely don’t explain the sudden sales dip. Could just be noise; we await the next pending sales index with some trepidation.

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