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NAR’s Yun has no idea what he’s saying

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Friday, Lawrence Yun predicted that home sales will fall by 9% this year, and home prices will rise by 8%.

At the beginning of the year, his forecast was:

2022 Home Sales Forecast: -2%

2022 Home Price Forecast: +2.8%

2022 Mortgage-Rate Forecast: Rates to rise to 3.7% by the end of 2022.

His forecasts are just guesses, and subject to change!


NAR calculates purchasing a home is now 55% more expensive than a year ago. These rising mortgage rates and prices hurt affordability, and although wages are improving, Yun says they are “wiped away” due to inflation.

“Wages have risen by 6% from one year ago and that’s good news,” he continued. “But inflation is at 8.5%.”

He estimates inflation will remain elevated for the next several months and that the market will see further monetary policy tightening through a series of rate hikes. Citing a five-month decline in pending home sales, as well as a drop in newly constructed single-family sales, Yun predicts the higher mortgage rates will slow the housing market.

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Lawrence Yun, chief economist and vice president of research for the National Association of Realtors, September 1, 2007: Predictions are always risky, but I’m going out on a limb to say existing-home sales will improve markedly by the fourth quarter. So keep your eyes on the horizon. There are forces at play that will turn the market around, and buyers who make the commitment now could be smiling next year.

Lawrence Yun, chief economist and vice president of research for the National Association of Realtors, September 11, 2007: The National Association of Realtors’ revised monthly prediction calls for U.S. existing home sales of 5.9 million in 2007, down from 6.5 million last year. The forecast was below last month’s prediction of a 6.8 percent drop.

Now, you can parse his words to conclude his more current comments don’t contradict what he said, just weeks prior, but you know, that just doesn’t fly.

Oh, Yun. You must have kept them in stitches at economist college.

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    Updated:  Boston Real Estate Blog 2022