The Globe has an article today about how everyone in Massachusetts is getting old and moving out of state (or dying). No one’s moving into the state.
The result? No one’s going to be left to buy your house, a couple years from now.
At least that’s their conclusion, based on conversations with several economists.
Funny little story, about past predictions of some economists.
In 1989, economists Greg Mankiw and David Weil, then both at Harvard University, took a stab at it. As the baby busters were entering the market, they wrote in a widely read paper that “housing demand will grow more slowly in the 1990s than in any time in the past 40 years . . . [and] housing prices will fall substantially over the next two decades.”
Economics, as economists are quick to tell you, is an imperfect science. Think meteorologist, or seismologist, but less accurate in their predictions (if possible).
My favorite economics joke is this one which I heard last week.
“Economists have accurately predicted nine of the last five recessions.”
It’s funnier when you hear it in person.
The Real Estate Generation Gap – By Mary Carmichael, The Boston Globe
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