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The coronavirus recession is all but certain to cause a spike in foreclosures.

A prominent housing analyst expects hundreds of thousands of defaults next year as mortgage forbearance periods end. The federal government predicts several billion dollars in loan losses at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage giants that hold two-thirds of American mortgages.

At first glance, those projections look bad. On closer inspection, however, this round of foreclosures should be mild in comparison to the financial carnage of 2008 to 2010.

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