Who has the best job in the world?

No, not a drummer in a rock and roll band.

An economist.

Who else gets paid to make wild predictions about the future, then never be held responsible, if things don’t turn out the way they say?

I spend a lot of time reading the opinions of economists. My favorite guy is Mark Zandi, Chief Economist over at Economy.com. He seems smart, logical, reasonable.

That doesn’t mean he always gets things right.

Nor do other economists.

From today’s Journal:

Economists predict the risk of a recession to be 36 percent, up from 28 percent a month ago, according to a Wall Street Journal online poll.

Those surveyed were split, however. Eleven economists said there was at least a 50 percent chance. On the other end, 13 economists said the chance of a recession was lower than 30 percent.

Economists who believe that a recession is inevitable say that the current magnitude of housing declines rarely occur except when there is a recession. Steve East, chief economist at Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co. Inc., who predicts a 60 percent chance of recession ….

What does that even mean?

I don’t think it makes any sense.

I think the economists should have been asked one simple question: Do you think there is going to be a recession, yes or no? And, a second question: Why or why not?

Comparatively, the people over at The PMI Group at least explain their methodology. To make their most recent predictions of housing price changes, they weighed several factors, “foremost among these factors are historical changes in house price volatility, housing affordability, and local employment trends.”

But, of course, it’s an inexact science to use existing data to predict what may or may not happen, right?

Meaning, previous results are not indicative of future behavior.

Economists Up the Odds for Likelihood of Recession – By Sudeep Reddy, The Wall Street Journal, by way of Realtor.org

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Updated: 1st Quarter 2018

Author Profile

John Ford
John Ford

Over the course of 20 years in the Boston downtown real estate market, John represented and sold numerous, condominiums, investment and development properties in Greater Boston and in the surrounding suburbs

In addition to representing Boston condo buyers and sellers, John is currently one of the most recognized Boston condo blog writers regarding Boston condominiums and residential real estate markets. John's insights and observations about the Boston condo market have been seen in a wide variety of the most established local & national media outlets including; Banker and Tradesman, Boston Magazine The Boston Globe, The Boston Herald and NewsWeek and Fortune magazine, among others.


For over 24 years, John Ford, of Ford Realty Inc., has been actively involved in the real estate industry. He started his career in commercial real estate with a national firm Spaulding & Slye and quickly realized that he had a passion for residential properties. In 1999, John entered the residential real estate market, and in 2000 John Started his own firm Ford Realty Inc. As a broker, his clients have come to love his fun, vivacious, and friendly attitude. He prides himself on bringing honesty and integrity to the entire home buying and selling process. In addition to helping buyers and sellers, he also works with rental clients. Whether you’re looking to purchase a new Boston condo or rent an apartment, you’ll quickly learn why John has a 97% closing rate.


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John Ford and his staff can be reached at 617-595-3712 or 617-720-5454. Please feel free to stop by John's Boston Beacon Hill office located at 137 Charles Street.

John Ford
Ford Realty Inc
137 Charles Street
Boston, Ma 02114



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