There’s a great article in today’s Business Week, headlined Housing Real-Estate Recovery Signaled as Fed Unwinds (Update1):

Here are the key points that can be used to motivate a buyer …

•“I would bet even odds that we’re at a bottom and that we’re going to see improvement in the coming months,” said Karl Case, co-creator of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index and a professor of economics at Wellesley College in Wellesley, Massachusetts.

•“The underlying trend is turning positive,” said Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York.

•“This is an important step in the right direction,” Peter Hooper, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities in New York, and his colleagues wrote in a report to clients last month. Mortgage originations for the purchase of a home will rise to $745 billion this year and $822 billion next year, the highest since 2008, from $740 billion in 2009, according to forecasts from the Washington-based Mortgage Bankers Association.

•“We don’t anticipate a massive widening of spreads once the Fed stops buying,” he said. “It will be a few basis points here and there.” As a result, he sees mortgage rates remaining “about where they are now.”

•“If we get a rebound, you could see excess supply disappear very quickly,” Lawler said.

•“The underlying trend in home sales is for gradual improvement,” Maki of Barclays Capital said. “While activity will remain at low levels for some time, the housing bust is essentially over.”

File Under: The spring market is back!

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