Following President Trump’s 2026 State of the Union address on February 24, 2026, mortgage rates are expected to drift slightly lower or remain stable in the low-6% range. During the speech, Trump highlighted that rates have already fallen from their 2025 highs of over 7% to a current three-year low of approximately 6.0%. To further drive down costs, he detailed a directive for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities, a “wild card” move intended to narrow mortgage spreads and reduce borrowing costs for consumers.

Current Mortgage Rate Landscape (February 25, 2026)

As of February 25, 2026, average rates for fixed-rate mortgages are as follows:

30-Year Fixed: 5.945% to 6.07%
15-Year Fixed: 5.286% to 5.45%
30-Year FHA: 5.859%
30-Year VA: 5.608%

2026 Forecasts Post-Address

While the administration predicts rates will continue “falling fast,” most independent analysts project a more gradual stabilization throughout 2026.

Fannie Mae: Predicts rates will average 6.1% in Q1 2026 and 6.0% by Q3 2026.
Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA): Forecasts rates holding steady at 6.1% through most of 2026, with potential to reach 6.5% by year-end if fiscal pressures persist.
National Association of Realtors (NAR): Projects an average of 6.0% for the year.
Redfin & Realtor.com: Expect rates to hover around 6.3%, with occasional dips below 6.0% depending on Federal Reserve actions.

Key Drivers and “Wild Cards”

Bond-Buying Program: The $200 billion purchase of mortgage bonds is designed to lower rates by increasing demand. However, economists warn the effect may be temporary if not supported by broader Federal Reserve monetary policy.
Inflation and Tariffs: Analysts note that other administration policies, such as new tariffs, could exert inflationary pressure, potentially offsetting rate cuts and keeping long-term yields elevated.
Housing Reform: Beyond rates, Trump called for a permanent ban on large institutional investors buying single-family homes to increase available inventory for families.

Peace be With You

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