Experts forecast that 30-year fixed mortgage rates in the second half of 2026 will likely range between 5.50% and 6.40%. While most major housing authorities anticipate a gradual decline toward the 6% mark by late 2026, some institutional forecasts suggest a potential modest rebound during the final months of the year.

Key Forecasts for H2 2026

Fannie Mae: Projects the 30-year fixed rate will average 6.0% for the majority of the year, potentially dipping to 5.7% by the end of 2026.
Morgan Stanley: Strategists anticipate rates could reach a low of 5.50%–5.75% by mid-2026, but they expect a slight increase in the second half of the year and into 2027.
National Association of Realtors (NAR): Forecasts a steady drift toward 6.0% by the latter half of the year as inflation cools.
Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA): Remains more conservative, predicting rates will stay in the 6.1% to 6.4% range through late 2026.
Bankrate: Projects an average of 6.1% for the year, with a potential low of 5.7% and a high of 6.5% depending on Federal Reserve activity.

Factors Influencing the Outlook

Federal Reserve Policy: The Fed held rates steady in early 2026, signaling a cautious approach; however, officials project at least one interest rate cut later in 2026.
Economic Indicators: A softening labor market (unemployment rose to 4.4% in February 2026) is expected to apply downward pressure on rates.
Geopolitical Volatility: Recent conflicts in the Middle East have caused temporary spikes in oil prices and bond yields, leading to some “stickiness” in mortgage rates.
“Lock-in Effect”: While inventory is slowly rising, many homeowners still hold pandemic-era rates below 4%, which continues to limit supply and keep upward pressure on home prices.