Predictions on mortgage rates between May through July 2026

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Let’s see what might happen to Boston condo for sale mortgage rates in the next few months.

For the immediate future (May through July 2026), most major industry groups expect rates to stay relatively flat or move slightly higher:

National Association of Realtors (NAR): Expects rates to hover around 6.4% to 6.5% in May, similar to April’s levels.
Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA): Predicts rates will stay between 6.1% and 6.3% in the coming months, noting that higher energy prices from global conflicts are keeping inflation—and rates—elevated.
Bankrate Expert Poll: A majority (57%) of polled experts expect rates to “stay flat” or move in a very narrow range in the near term.
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Mid-2026 Forecasts by Major Institution

Looking toward the middle of 2026, forecasts vary based on how each group views inflation and Federal Reserve policy:

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Source	Q2 2026 Forecast (30-Yr Fixed)	Trend Note
Fannie Mae	6.3%	Revised upward from 5.9% due to recent inflation risks.
Wells Fargo	6.15%	Expects rates to bottom out around 6.1% early in the year.
Mortgage Bankers Association	6.3%	Predicts rates will remain “sticky” and stay above 6% through the year.
Morgan Stanley	5.5% – 5.75%	Among the most optimistic; sees a potential dip by mid-year followed by a rise.

Key Factors Driving Current Predictions

Economists highlight several “swing factors” that could change these forecasts quickly:

Geopolitical Conflict: Tensions in the Middle East have pushed oil prices over a $100 a barrel, fanning inflation fears and keeping upward pressure on bond yields.
When bond yields go up, mortgage rates generally rise as well. This happens because both products compete for the same types of investors.

Federal Reserve Stance: The Fed held rates steady in early 2026. Most economists now project only no cuts for the entire year, suggesting a much slower easing than previously hoped.
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Inflation & Jobs: While the labor market shows some cooling, inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, which acts as a “floor” that prevents mortgage rates from falling significantly.
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