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Last of the Fed cuts?

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Last of the Fed cuts?

  • The Fed’s Big Decision: The Federal Reserve is wrapping up its two-day meeting today, with an announcement expected around 2:00 p.m. ET. The word on the street, and what the markets are betting on, is that they’ll keep the federal funds rate right where it is. That’s currently between 3.50% and 3.75%. This isn’t surprising, but it’s always a moment to watch to see if there are any hints about future moves.

Fed holds interest rates steady

The Federal Reserve left interest rates untouched at its Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday, the first time it hasn’t cut them since July. 

In a statement after the meeting, the 12-member body said that while economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace, job growth has remained low, and inflation is “somewhat elevated.”  

Two members appointed by President Trump — Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller — voted against the decision to leave the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75% because they wanted another cut, while the rest voted in favor of it. 

The Fed has a dual mandate to achieve maximum employment and keep inflation below 2%. 

“Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated,” the Fed said. “The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.” 

The Fed began cutting rates in September after the nation’s economic outlook began to soften. The housing industry has been eager for more cuts to help improve affordability, which has stymied the pace of home sales over the last couple years. Observers expect the Fed to cut rates at least 0.25% this year.

“While the Federal Reserve is maintaining interest rates in order to try to bring inflation levels closer to its target, uncertainties surrounding the economy remain elevated,” Cotality Chief Economist Selma Hepp said. “The job market remains a sticking point, even though the economy as a whole remains on solid ground. With tariffs continuing to impact pricing on so many consumer products, pressure will remain to find stronger solutions that would help lower the cost of everyday items for families.” 

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Last of the Fed cuts?

J.P. Morgan predicts no Fed action on interest rates this year.

Job growth, 3% inflation leave no wiggle room for cuts

Jerome Powell

Michael Feroli, J.P. Morgan’s chief U.S. economist, issued his revised outlook after a series of Fed cuts in late 2025 that helped bring mortgage rates to their lowest levels in more than a year, according to a note reported by Realtor.com. While financial markets continue to price in two additional cuts in 2026, Feroli argued economic conditions will not justify further easing. 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term expires in May, and President Donald Trump is expected to nominate a successor who favors lower rates. 

But the chair holds only one vote on the 12‑member Federal Open Market Committee, and Feroli wrote in the note that he does not believe a more dovish leader could persuade the committee to ease policy in this economic environment.

Feroli stresses that his forecast is not guaranteed. If the labor market weakens or inflation falls more sharply than expected, the Fed could still cut later in 2026. However, he expects labor conditions to tighten by the second quarter and sees the disinflation process unfolding slowly.
 
A prolonged period of elevated inflation and steady Fed policy would keep upward pressure on mortgage rates, which heavily impact home sales. While rates recently averaged 6.16 percent — near 2025 lows — analysts at Realtor.com project an average of roughly 6.3 percent in 2026.

J.P. Morgan’s analysis comes on the heels of a jobs report showing unemployment dipping to 4.4 percent from a four‑year high of 4.5 percent. 

Signs of stabilization have prompted other major banks to push back their expectations for Fed cuts. Goldman Sachs and Barclays now anticipate the first cut in June rather than March, though both still expect three quarter‑point reductions through 2026. The banks argue that if the labor market continues to steady, the Fed will shift from a risk‑management stance to a traditional normalization approach.

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Last of the Fed cuts?

Fed serves second rate cut after hikes, backs off previous forecast

Powell dangles uncertainty over future cuts 

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell and President Donald Trump (Getty)
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently “dangled uncertainty” over future interest rate cuts, indicating that a further reduction in rates in December 2025 is “far from a foregone conclusion”.
 
Following the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates for the second time this year at its October 2025 meeting, Powell cautioned against assuming a continued aggressive easing path. Key aspects of his message include:
  • A “Far From” Certain December Cut: Powell explicitly stated that another rate cut at the December meeting is not guaranteed, a comment that caused stocks to turn negative while Treasury yields and the dollar jumped.
  • Data Dependence: Powell emphasized that future decisions would be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis and depend on incoming economic data. The current federal government shutdown has delayed the release of key data sets, adding to the uncertainty and potentially arguing for caution.
  • Internal Division: The decision to cut rates by 25 basis points in October was not unanimous, with two dissenting votes among the FOMC members (one favoring a larger cut, the other no cut at all), reflecting a growing division within the central bank on the appropriate policy path.
  • Market Reaction: Despite the October rate cut, markets were initially underwhelmed by Powell’s cautious tone, as investors had largely priced in the probability of a continuous series of cuts.
In essence, Powell’s comments were aimed at managing market expectations and stressing that the Fed maintains a flexible, data
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