Based on housing data from December 2025 and earlier forecasts, the key data points to track for the rest of 2026 include mortgage rates, the 10-year Treasury yield, inventory levels, mortgage applications, and home prices.

Key data lines to track for 2026

Mortgage Rates: Forecasters, including Fannie Mae, expect a gradual decline in 30-year fixed mortgage rates, potentially falling below 6% by the end of 2026. The rate’s movement will be a major factor in improving affordability and unlocking demand from sidelined buyers.
10-Year Treasury Yield: This bond’s yield influences mortgage rates. A stable yield near 4% in December 2025 suggested that lower mortgage rates would persist into 2026. Monitoring the yield will be important for anticipating changes in mortgage rates throughout the year.
Housing Inventory: The balance between supply and demand is crucial. While inventory has been rising, it remains below historical averages. Tracking new listings and the number of active listings will indicate if the market is moving toward a more balanced state. A significant influx of inventory could put downward pressure on prices.
Mortgage Purchase Applications: This forward-looking metric is a key indicator of buyer demand. An increase in applications in late 2025 suggested a positive start for 2026, and its continued trend will signal sustained buyer interest.
Home Prices: Forecasts for 2026 generally predict modest home price growth, with some regional variations. Data from the National Association of Realtors predicts a 4% home price gain in 2026, while Zillow predicts a more modest 1.5% national increase over the 12 months from October 2025. Price changes will vary by location, with some markets potentially seeing slight declines.
Mortgage Spreads: Spreads between mortgage rates and Treasury yields have been near normal levels. Monitoring these spreads will help determine if mortgage rates will continue to decline.
Foreclosure Activity: Though low overall, recent increases in foreclosure filings indicate potential borrower stress in some areas. Tracking these trends will provide insight into the overall stability of the market.
Days on Market and Price Reductions: As inventory grows, homes are taking longer to sell. Watching the median days on market and the percentage of homes with price reductions will indicate whether buyers are gaining more leverage.
Economic Indicators: Broader economic factors, such as job growth, consumer confidence, and any further actions by the Federal Reserve, will continue to influence the housing market.